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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7746)	3/2/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: Clam Clam	Respond to of 27307

>> re OSX, Well there is a Journal article today about how crude is going to $12 but the stocks are up. The group trades a lot like the semi cap equip group. Both are extremely volatile and both are ultimately dependent on the price of a commodity (crude and DRAM's). The stocks all move together based on the outlook for spending. Technically, the OSX seems to be trailing the SOX by a month or two. The SOX rolled over in October and the OSX in November. The SOX broke out it early Feb and the OSX seems to be breaking out here in early March. The fundamentals for both groups are poor but that is why they corrected so sharply. There is an argument that the big boom in semi equipment in the '94-'96 stage was catch-up for underinvestment in the late '80's/early '90's. There is a similar argument for the drillers now. Meanwhile, some analysts believe now that cap equipment spending will not sustain acceleration this year or next (like it did in '94-'96) because we are not coming off the underinvestment stage like we were then. My point is, the OSX could be following a trend the SOX went through in 1995-'97. The SOX went through a year long correction and then went had a tremendous move. It might be early since the OSX has only been correcting since November but it is an interesting comparison.