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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (15303)	3/2/1998 4:59:00 PM
From: Starbase4.0	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

The "sucker's rally" ends and the sleepless nights begin. Hello $15 (again).

To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (15303)	3/2/1998 5:07:00 PM
From: Yakov Lurye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Mr. A, I am not sure that we are finished with the down trend - if previous trading patterns hold, we may have two more down days ahead (4-5 days selloff). I am close to 100% cash as of Friday close(except for a small LRCX short position and few MU calls), with CYMI safely sitting in the IRA account where I don't have to worry about day-to-day trades. Itching to step to the plate though... BTW, MU is up today - looks like it is parting ways with semi-equips.. Good luck, Y.

To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (15303)	3/2/1998 5:14:00 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 25960

The article I mentioned from Friday suggests the general market will be flat for the next 6 months. How much higher than 50x p/e can you go on those big cap stocks until interest rates fall. A few paragraphs of this article are posted below. archive.thestreet.com Quant View: Valuations Return to Peak Levels By Ted Murphy Special to TheStreet.com 2/27/98 2:32 PM ET Equity valuations relative to interest rates have returned to the peaks of last August, with a -1.01% yield differential. A relative yield of less than -100 basis points has always in the past been followed by a flat to down stock market over the next six months. Long-Term Record Is Strong The long-term record behind this concept of relative yield is strong. As you can see in the chart below, the relationship between equity yield and interest rates has provided a consistent touchstone for market valuation over the last 36 years. Short term, the model has been wrong since last summer. This model would have pulled us out of the market in May, and there has been no buy signal since then. Since May 31, 1997, the S&P 500 has appreciated 23.6%.