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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Howard Feinstein who wrote (16892)	3/2/1998 6:55:00 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Howard, We are still in the trading (DW noise) range of $38-35. We still did not have a reversal down to $35 since we only reached the fraction of 35 1/16 low today. Remember, that fractions do not count. AMAT then moved up to close at 35 7/16. The Bull resistance line is at $33. It will take a move to $32 to break it. But it appears that the resistance noise wise is at $35. Hopefully, I will be able to buy more at $33. Just my opinion. Paul V.

To: Howard Feinstein who wrote (16892)	3/3/1998 2:23:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

Howie, I haven't heard from you in quite a while, glad to see that you are still around! AMAT, like the rest of the semi-manufacturers, is very prone to respond to market influences. If US economic times are good, and world economies and chip producers are in a growth mode, the manufacturers typically do very well. Right now the US is good but Asia is struggling (Asia is about 50% of the equip business) and the short term prospect is questionable. Long term things look much better, hopefully by early '99. To answer your question, yes you can make money trading in and out of AMAT and the semi-mfg's, but you must be fleet of foot willing to be decisive in your buys and sells. You must also be coldly objective about your strategy and motives, and business conditions that influence the semi-mfg stocks. My buy target is $33 and below, my projected low is $27 for the fiscal year, but if Japan drops deeper into recession then there is a high probability that the stock could drop lower, IMO. I anticipate that the stock will react similar to 1996's price % movements with the lows being somewhere between late March and June, as that is the 2nd quarter for many US tech companies. IMO the markets will respond negatively to weaker earnings from the Q1 results and the uncertainty going forward. Reference Gottfried's site, where he has multiple charts showing the last 5 years stock performance. geocities.com Good investing, BB