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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (13323)	3/2/1998 8:38:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

It's about time I do some serious writeup on the drillers again. As of the close today, I'm more excited than for the past 1 month because we are very close to a near term shift in trading sentiment and pattern. Here are why: 1) Today we have three days of consecutive inverse correlation to crude price. Last Thursday oil was down. OSX was up strongly. Last Friday oil was up (just slightly). OSX was down (also slightly). Today Monday oil was down. OSX was up strongly. All these based on very simple rationale: we have close to 3 weeks of strict positive correlation between oil price and OSX. And we just broke three days in a roll. Three days is really a magic number because one day makes no trend, two days a trend makes, three days a confirmation made. 2) We have selective breakouts in the charts from the upper resistence flat line standpoint (those with * means a real breakout) Symbol Resistence ====== ========== RIG* 44 ATW* 47.5 (strongest of all) NE 30 (31 for no-doubt breakout) ESV 31 DO 48.5 GLM 26 HAL 49 SII 58 RON 57.5 EVI 52 VRC* 25 FGII 35.5 MDCO 20.5 NBR 28 OSX 108 (next resistence at 114.5) 3) As can be seen from the above list, the best performers are the deepwater drillers (best fundamentals) and the service companies (best merger/takeover potentials). The land drillers are way below their resistence and we all understand why. I put up NBR for an illustration and NBR is the best performing land drillers. CDG's weakness is parculiar but it could very well be linked to its Venezuela land exposure and its shallow water GOM fleet. 4) The GOM lease sale is coming up in 2 weeks. They are selling primarily (if I remember right about 70%) the deepwater tracks. Therefore, one would expect more writeups on the deepwater because everything else being equal this is a primarily deepwater track lease sale. However, this is a double edge sword. Traders will be sweating over the result because if it is as good as last year then the deepwater drillers will go higher. If the response is below expectation then everyone goes down bad. If the response is as expected then it will have a positive bias but the traders can certainly do damage by taking profit especially if OSX is close to the next level resistence by then. 5) I'm not throwing oil price away from the equation but I would also pay some attention to the natural gas. The magic number for natural gas is $2.50. CDG and some land drillers (UTI) should benefit greatly if this level is surpassed. The more days we can sustain without correlation to oil the better. I've been following the drillers day in and day out for over 1 1/2 years and I know the market always shifts towards something. For example, it could be oil price (recent month), natural gas price (last winter), long stochastics (April-Sept, 1997), and inverse TA (Oct-Jan). That's why those who preach only fundamentals are very poor short term timers and they cannot beat the market. 6) Watch for the woman in red Maria tomorrow morning. If someone pound the table, she will shout three times as loud. Maria is our friend. Bob Pisani is our foe. 7) The confirmation tomorrow lies on the close. Early morning strength will do wonder but the closing numbers are the key. If we close on a wimper, all bets are off again and we go back to the dog house.

To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (13323)	3/2/1998 11:11:00 PM
From: debra vogt	Respond to of 95453

Market Edge Second Opinion for EVI for 3/3/98 - upgraded: Second Opinion - EVI 03/03/98 Symbol: EVI Name: E V I INC Exchange: NYSE PRICE ANALYSIS Close 50.75 Open 49.00 High 51.25 Low 48.25 Change 1.69 YrHigh 73.00 YrLow 26.69 Mo Chg (%) 25.7 Resistance N/A Support 42.87 SELL STOP 41.92 Volatility (%) 4 Position 96 ADXR 18 OPINION C-Rate 8.3 LONG 03/03/98 ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ 50.75 VOLUME ANALYSIS Volume 8146 Ave Vol 6211 Mo Chg (%) -32.1 * U/D ÿ 1.0 ÿ Slope UP Obv BR * Pos Obv BL Neg Obv BR * MFI ÿ 67 ÿ Slope DOWN UPGRADED TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Alpha 0.23 Beta 0.76 MACD-ST BL MACD-LT BL 50-Day R.S. 1.05 10-Day M.A. UP 110 21-Day M.A. UP 110 50-Day M.A. UP 112 200-Day M.A. UP 101 STO(Slow %K) 96 STO(Fast %K) 94 Wilders-RSI 67 OBOS -1 Bollinger Bands 18 RSV 85 POWER RATING 67 SCORE = 0 COMMENT Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a BULLISH TREND Chart pattern indicates a WEAK UPWARD TREND Relative Strength is BULLISH Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under ACCUMULATION The 50 day MOVING AVERAGE is rising which is BULLISH The 200 day MOVING AVERAGE is rising which is BULLISH LOOK FOR SUPPORT AT 42.87 Stochastics indicate stock is OVERBOUGHT STOCK broke DOUBLE TOP (Bullish) Point & Figure Chart Formation Yesterday RECOMMENDATION STOCK IS A BUY; STOCK IS OVERBOUGHT; WAIT FOR PULLBACK TO INITIATE NEW POSITION MarketEdge & Second Opinion are neither offers to sell nor solictations of offers to buy any security. See User Agreement for other disclaimers.