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To: Moonray who wrote (10390)	3/2/1998 8:35:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

Moonray: Deja vu deja vu... I have not checked into it but its those rapid sales declines are never a good thing (unless discontiued businesses?) (There's something from an analyst about how this appears to be the base revenue level for CS FWIW) Still I have ASND and I'm thankful for the small miracle of it getting back to $35 - even if only for an instant. I'll have to check on CS later. Am still waiting for that Red Herring article. Saw that Compaq is doing the Netelligent thing with LSI. Plus ASND 56K rollout continues. Hoping that CS thing is company specific. Shane.

To: Moonray who wrote (10390)	3/3/1998 5:00:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25814

Moonray: This is what happens when capacity goes down - the next few years will be good. This is the scenario I like and this is why I'm hoping for a very good 1999-2001. Also this would gel with your "consolidation theory". "The stocks have been unusually strong, and that is in the wake of the possible threat from Asia," said Drew Peck, an analyst at Cowen & Co., in Boston. "Two years ago, something like this may have battered the stocks. Now it seems like investors have turned a deaf ear. I think they are in denial. They do not want to hear any bad news." This attitude could be fueled by investors' belief that a slowdown in Asian demand will mean less to companies that have limited exposure to Asian markets. To a certain degree, that may be true. But when buying power in a dominant growth market is cut in half, as is happening in Asia, the domino effect is not likely to be positive, and the March quarter may be a reality check for investors, according to Peck. Others, however, are more bullish on what lies ahead. While Asia remains a sore spot, the industry's exposure is limited, said Dan K. Scovel, an analyst at Fahnestock & Co., in New York. The Asian crisis "is not one of the primary drivers for the companies we follow right now," Scovel said. "It doesn't hold a candle to the manufacturing problems or the product transitions or the other things that dominate the landscape. The bears may argue that we haven't felt anything yet. But when semiconductor companies have 3 percent to 8 percent of their exposure in Asia, how much damage can this do?" Despite differing opinions on the latest round of stock market activity, analysts said they expect 1998 to be a disappointing year for high-tech investors. But the outlook for 1999 is for improvement. A decline in global capital spending this year compared with 1997 will be one of the key factors behind next year's improvement in the technology industry, particularly the semiconductor sector, said Mark Edelstone, an analyst at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter, in San Francisco. "One of the biggest problems in the semiconductor market is the companies will be fighting excess capacity," he said. "It's good to see they are cutting back their capital expense plans. They were overbuilding capacity in the 1993, 1994, and 1995 time frame. These cutbacks in spending will help the supply-demand situation." ---- TSO: especially check out last 2 paras. That's why that little 1 billion error in semi-equip spending last year made me happier! ----