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Non-Tech : Conseco Insurance (CNO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Pri who wrote (640)	3/2/1998 9:51:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 4155

>>Pancho.. I see you are also short on ALYD. Do you ever go long?<< Yes. I short as a hedge. I usually have a very significant long exposure even over 100%. I do not discuss my longs much at SI as many of them are long term non-technical stocks such as MO, G and others not even discussed at SI. >>It's O.K. to be short for the little ups and downs of the market but in the long run if you believe in the economic power and needs of the baby boomers this stock will grow and grow and grow.<< Could not agree more. With Conseco, I must admit I shorted on RD's tail, and will very likely cover on a dip under 43 for at least a small profit [didn't cover at 40 last january because I was out of the country]. I know what you will say, CNC will never see under 43 again. if you check past posts, you will see one other person said this before only to see the stock dip to 40. Pancho PS: Liked your post, even though it is full of very optimistic forecasts and we all know analysts cannot forecast reliably earnings even one year out

To: The Pri who wrote (640)	3/2/1998 10:03:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4155

Pri: I am not so sure CNC has will have so much cash flow/free cash: flow. If you look at the CF statement from the first nine months of 97 in latest 10Q: > CONSECO, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS (Dollars in millions) (unaudited) Nine months ended September 30, ------------------------ 1997 1996 ---- ---- <S> <C> <C> Cash flows from operating activities: Net income............................................................................. $ 395.9 $ 174.5 Adjustments to reconcile net income to net cash provided by operating activities: Amortization and depreciation........................................................ 395.2 190.7 Income taxes......................................................................... 94.6 (4.4) Insurance liabilities................................................................ (81.8) 58.7 Amounts added to annuity and financial product policyholder account balances......... 588.6 474.4 Fees charged to insurance liabilities................................................ (318.2) (158.9) Accrual and amortization of investment income........................................ (34.6) (27.2) Deferral of cost of policies produced................................................ (442.7) (237.0) Nonrecurring items................................................................... 71.7 (30.4) Minority interest.................................................................... - 17.3 Extraordinary charge on extinguishment of debt....................................... 9.5 28.6 Net investment gains................................................................. (137.3) (9.8) Other................................................................................ (16.9) (34.2) --------- --------- Net cash provided by operating activities.......................................... 524.0 442.3 --------- --------- Cash flows from investing activities: Sales of investments................................................................... 11,453.1 4,954.0 Maturities and redemptions............................................................. 450.2 521.0 Purchases of investments............................................................... (12,673.0) (5,852.8) Purchase of Life Partners Group, Inc................................................... - (9.5) Purchase of property and casualty insurance brokerage businesses....................... - (12.0) Purchase of additional shares of American Life Holdings, Inc........................... - (165.0) Purchase of preferred stock of American Life Holdings, Inc............................. - (12.6) Purchase of mandatorily redeemable preferred stock of subsidiary....................... (98.4) - Repurchase of equity securities by Bankers Life Holding Corporation.................... - (27.7) Cash held by Life Partners Group, Inc. before consolidation............................ - 79.1 Acquisition of Capitol American Financial Corporation, net of cash held at date of merger........................................................................... (522.1) - Cash held by Pioneer Financial Services, Inc. at date of merger........................ 44.2 - Acquisition of Colonial Penn Life Insurance Company and Providential Life Insurance Company and certain other assets, net of cash held at date of purchase............... 11.3 - Other.................................................................................. (5.0) (56.5) --------- --------- Net cash used by investing activities ............................................. (1,339.7) (582.0) --------- --------- Cash flows from financing activities: Issuance of Company-obligated mandatorily redeemable preferred stock of subsidiary trusts.................................................................... 296.7 - Issuance of shares related to stock options and employee benefit plans ............... 46.4 16.3 Issuance of convertible preferred stock................................................ - 257.7 Issuance of commercial paper, net...................................................... 492.9 - Issuance of notes payable.............................................................. 1,858.4 853.3 Redemption of preferred shares......................................................... - (.3) Payments on notes payable.............................................................. (1,554.8) (987.5) Payments to repurchase equity securities of Conseco.................................... (496.8) (21.5) Investment borrowings.................................................................. 925.5 169.8 Deposits to insurance liabilities...................................................... 1,426.7 1,266.5 Withdrawals from insurance liabilities................................................. (1,629.2) (1,366.4) Charge related to induced conversion of convertible preferred stock.................... (13.2) - Dividends paid ........................................................................ (44.9) (25.8) --------- --------- Net cash provided by financing activities.......................................... 1,307.7 162.1 --------- --------- Net increase in short-term investments............................................. 492.0 22.4 Short-term investments, beginning of period............................................... 281.6 189.9 --------- --------- Short-term investments, end of period..................................................... $ 773.6 $ 212.3 ========= ========= Notice the item in cash flow from operations titled : "Amounts added to annuity and financial product policyholder account balances" I am sorry to tell you these cash does not belong to CNC stockholders but to the policy and annuity holders. Take them away and you are left with..... Pancho