To: Pancho Villa who wrote (3893 ) 3/3/1998 11:43:00 AM From: Oeconomicus Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 18691
Re option discussion - Pancho, to be efficient, the option markets require various participants - hedgers, speculators and arbitrageurs. The whole point is to efficiently transfer risk and all three play a part. Damien, if puts have been sytematically overpriced since 1987, I'd say it's the arbs who are missing from the equation. Hedgers and speculators buying puts are anticipating the same thing, one in fear and the other in hope. Speculators and hedgers writing puts seem to be a rarity. The former, being bulls, would be more likely to buy stocks or calls while the latter, short sellers, are a relative rarity anyway any many of them probably don't hedge with puts. Without arbs, it seems to me that demand would always exceed supply, pushing prices higher. Why so few arbs? Because we've been in an extended raging bull market and even institutional investors are spoiled by 20%+ returns. Pure arbitrage activities are neither bullish nor bearish; they are market neutral strategies for exploiting pricing inefficiencies among essentially equivalent securities, generating "excess" risk adjusted returns as an alternative more to fixed income investments than equities. Until the investing world realizes that there really is risk in the equity markets and that 20%+ returns are not the norm, significant money does not flow into market neutral investment strategies, hence few arbs. A friend of mine with over ten years of option and commodity trading and arbitrage experience, along with two partners, started a hedge fund a year or so ago with a market neutral strategy. The institutions that they went to basically said that, in spite of their experience and track record and in spite of the attractive risk adjusted returns, they could not see diverting funds from the equity markets to earn a relative few extra basis points over treasuries. Sorry for the long, off-t, theoretical post folks, but I actually do have a point. That is that a systematic overpricing of put options may, on the surface, look like excessive fear or bearishness, but in reality may represent complacency or a lack of fear among equity investors. Zzzzzz... BZZZZZ!! Nap's Over! Bob "find a bearish case in everything" Buschman