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To: Chris who wrote (6540)3/3/1998 3:05:00 PM
From: jmac  Respond to of 42787
 
Now what?



To: Chris who wrote (6540)3/3/1998 6:02:00 PM
From: Chris  Respond to of 42787
 
Subject: Tech Stock Options

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To: lisa (35837 )
From: donald sew Tuesday, Mar 3 1998 10:25AM EST
Reply # of 35896

INDEX UPDATE
===============================

Obviously the HiTechs are showing strong weaknes today, but now the question is will the downtrend in the HiTechs continue beyond today.

I just checked the NEW HI/LOs for the NYSE and the NAZ. The ratio for the NYSE is still high and right now it is 60 new highs and 6 new lows, giving a ratio of 10, but the ratio for the NAZ is on 3.6(51 new highs, 14 new lows). The ratio for the dow is not declining but is flat compared to the 5 and 10 day moving average, while the NAZ's ratio is declining.

Also the XAL and the transports are showing strength today.

I am concluding that today will again be a relatively flat day for the DOW and that the NAZ may bounce back tomorrow or later today.

If I am correct, then this flat plateau which started yesterday should continue till WED/THUR. Then the news on Friday may be the turning point to the downside. Even if the news is good, we could see a short-term pop, but it will only delay the pullback a few days. I strongly feel that we will not go up strongly, say to the 8800-9000 range until we have a small pullback. Technically a small pullback is healthy for the market to continue up.

Please keep in mind that we are still in an uptrend for the longer term. Now if the earning warnings are really bad/ interest rates continue to rise/ other bad news, then of course the pullback can intensify.

Seeya

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