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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lrb who wrote (3887)	3/3/1998 2:04:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Lisa, if I remember correctly, the December Viracept mkt share was about 30% ... flat from the previous month. The 37.7% number may be a mistake, or noise in the weekly data. I continue to be concerned about a potential stall-out in Viracept market share growth due to Forotvase ... and the implications for Roche's Viracept marketing efforts in Europe. But the data are just too preliminary to tell us which way things are going to go. btw, the actual numbers down on the weekly data published Monday may have been just random variation in the (notoriously unreliable) weekly data, or due to the short week. see the below article from today on the Evista scrips published Monday. Lilly's <LLY.N> new Evista scrips up on short week CHICAGO, March 2 (Reuters) - New prescriptions written for Evista, a recently launched Eli Lilly and Co drug to prevent osteoporosis, totaled 6,544 in the week ended February 20, compared to 6,451 new prescriptions in the previous week, reported healthcare information firm IMS America on Monday. Given that the February 20 business week was shortened to four days by Washington's Birthday, ABN AMRO Chicago Corp pharmaceuticals industry analyst James Keeney said he was satisfied with Evista's weekly sales performance. "I'm happy with this. I don't know why the rest of the world isn't," Keeney said. Shares in Indianapolis-based Lilly were off 1-5/16 to 64-1/2 on the New York Stock Exchange, marking another Monday slump for the drugmaker driven by Evista prescriptions data. Since the drug's launch, some analysts have unfavorably compared its momentum to that of Fosamax, another osteoporosis drug that came out of the blocks more strongly two years ago for Merck & Co Inc <MRK.N>. Other analysts have argued that the two drugs are not strictly comparable products and pointed to Evista's long-term sales potential as a strength.

To: lrb who wrote (3887)	3/4/1998 12:25:00 AM
From: margie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6136

The 37.7% market share for December that I posted 2/5/97 was wrong. I am sorry. I did not realize it at the time. When you re-posted it today, I went back and checked the market shares for each. Apparently, the 37.7% was Crixivan's market share in December and someone erroneously reported it as Agouron's. Agouron's market share was 29.94% in December '97, and 29.78% in January, '98. Crixivan's market share was 37.75% in December,'97, and 36.74% in January,'98. I thought the market share seemed kind of high at the time, but those were the figures reported in the PW report of 2/4/98. Sam had posted another analyst's report from 2/4/98,which had the same figures, so I posted it. lehman.com Title: Biotechnology: Update from the Chicago Retroviral Conference. I don't know if it is still available there. I am sure that the difference in market share between December and January is not statistically significant: 29.94% vs 29.78%. I don't know if these numbers will stay in the right columns, but the table starts with percentage market share in March of 97 and ends in January of 1998. I don't have the figures for February of '98. Viracept was approved by the FDA in March of 1997. In March of 97, Crixivan's market share was 59.12%. In January of 1998, Crixivan's market share was 36.74%. and Viracept's market share was 29.78%. Norvir is being used in combination with Fortovase, which accounts for the increase in Norvir market share. Viracept's market share should increase even more as it becomes used in double protease inhibitor combinations. Also, Roche is supposed to launch Viracept in Europe in early March, according to analyst reports. Peter: Once Viracept is officially launched in Europe, (it may already be launched) it will not matter which drug sells more, Viracept or Fortovase, because Agouron will receive royalties based on the drug that has the highest sales. That is the arrangement, I believe. Percentage Market Share 3/97 4/97 5/97 6/97 7/97 Viracept 2.49 10.04 16 20.14 23.67% Crixivan 59.12 57.34 50.39 47.49 45.12% Invirase 24.48 20.7 21.6 21.04 20.11% Norvir 13.92 11.9 12.01 11.32 11.1% Fortovase n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Total* 106,563 123,816 125,024 122,122 135,188 8/97 9/97 10/97 11/97 12/97 1/98 Viracept 26.01 27.87 28.17 29.15 29.94 29.78 Crixivan 42.24 40.9 41.4 40.07 37.75 36.74 Invirase 20.18 19.67 18.54 18 13.62 13.62 Norvir 11.56 11.53 11.89 12.05 12.55 13.308 Fortovase n/a n/a n/a 0.70% 4% 6.5% Total* 132,547 134,431 144,928 137.271 152566 152655 *Total=Total Prescriptions, unadjusted, in absolute numbers.