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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Advance Gaming Technologies Inc. (AGTI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kbrown who wrote (1333)	3/3/1998 11:40:00 PM
From: Hardrocker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4539

Kbrown, Welcome! It's nice to have you here. It's really tough to define a date when we will reach your $.50 bogey. But I do think it's possible in the not-too-distant future, just based on the things we know right now. Everybody is aware the company is undergoing a major management transition. Most times, such a transition would be expected to momentarily slow things down as the new CEO replaces the old. But it looks like Tom Nieman isn't going to let any proverbial grass grow under his feet, so the hiccup should be very brief. We are already seeing positive news which will impact the bottom line: - The BTC deal, which will favorably impact both revenues and expenses - The near term promotion of PartiMax in the U.K. - The approval for marketing in Texas Now, here's a "what if". What if we assign an arbitrary P/E of 15 to the industry in general (that may be off by a country mile, but it's a guesstimate) and apply that same P/E to AGTI. If you divide your target price ($.50) by the P/E (15), you come up with approximately $.03 per share in earnings. In other words, and very theoretically, the company would need an EPS of approx. $.03 to support a price of $.50. With a ballpark of 100 million shares out, that means annualized net income would have to be in the neighborhood of $3M. With a combination of revenue enhancements and expense reductions, I think those numbers are certainly possible. And maybe a lot better. Somebody please correct me if my logic or my math are out of whack. Then there are other, less tangible variables. It's the unpredictability of the market and the effect of news events on our share prices. Just like today, we drifted downward for no apparent reason...just the normal volatile nature of penny stocks. But on one major news release, we could see a quick and violent spike in price. Your crystal ball's as good as mine on these unpredictables! Pull a date out of the sky and tell your missus you should be solidly in the black by mid-October, then sinfully wealthy by Christmas.!..:o) Regards, Hardrocker