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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: zc66 who wrote (5833)	3/3/1998 5:28:00 PM
From: Punko	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19080

It's only a matter of time before that single platform that most unix backers like to think of as a shrinkwrapped toy relegates unix to niche status (if that). Security, reliability, and scalability are obstacles NT must overcome, but Microsoft has its resources focused on overcoming these, and once they do, it's tough for me to see any reasonable competition to NT for the overwhelming percentage of the enterprise OS market. Even if NT can claim to be in the same ballpark as the competition, that will still accelerate the rate of NT adoption. And when we get to the point where platform independence is no longer an issue, there goes perhaps Oracle's greatest competitive strength, short of support for network computing based on superior and open (i.e. free) distributed object technology. I don't think this will materialize any time within the next 2 years, and I remain long-term bullish on Oracle because of its Java/CORBA/Network computing vision, which, while unproven, represents a strong, desireable (and free) alternative to the Microsoft model. But if network computing does not pan out, and if Microsoft is left alone by the government, NT will eventually dominate the desktop and the enterprise. And if that happens, I can't see how Oracle can continue to grow period, let alone at rates justifying the current PE. I concede I have no survey data to confirm this, but based on my experience as an IS consultant, the vast majority of relational db licenses (as high as 80% or more) are purchased to run enterprise apps. Enterprise apps are not a big stress on database capabilities - not like Data warehousing and management of rich data. When NT becomes enterprise-ready, SQL Server will handle these work-horse enterprise apps requirements. The commoditization of the database has already begun, and it will gain momemtum. Nothing short of a paradigm shift can stop it. The government and network computing are Oracle's best hopes of avoiding Novellization.