To: Gregg who wrote (9776 ) 3/3/1998 11:32:00 PM From: Robert Graham Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 14631
The hedging effects of the MM during options expiration I am finding is very well known by the professionals and the very experienced option players, but unfortunately not described very well in anything I have come across. Many option players do not understand what happens during expiration or how the MM makes a market in the option. Oddly enough, I do not think they want to know. Earlier on in my adventure with options what I had to do was work through in my head how options must be handled during options expiration by the MM, which actually is not that difficult to do once I understood how options operated in the marketplace. All I had to do is place myself in the shoes of the MM. I then verified what I can up with by talking to a registered option specialist that works as a desk trader for a brokerage firm. In the mean time, this picture of options expiration has been verified in all of the books and online commentary that I have read, including that of James Cramer. The observable market effects of this options expiration process also supports this model of MM hedging, which is the only way that the MM can protect themselves during this period of time as one who has to take the other side of the trade on an expiring option the day it expires. This area of options is covered only in a sparse way in the material about options that is available to be read. So you have to read this part very carefully to understand what is being said about options expiration. By the way, the market maker will also have to hedge if they take on a significant position in an illiquid option. They do this in the same way as their handling of the option expiration process: by selling stock. Then all they do is exersize the option to cover their short. I understand what you are saying about the people who purchased at 9. However, for anyone to write options with a strike price at 5, they would need to have purchased the stock below 5, or at least have their remaining cost basis there. I think many people purchased at 5. Since we are talking about on the order of 1.3M shares of stock, I suspect this involves multiple option writers. For whatever the reason is, the options were created as the result of supply and not demand. The trick here is to look at the option premium available on these CALLs with a strike price of 5. The option premium had been unusually very low compared to what I have seen IFMX options selling at before, and even considering what I normally see on other stocks. If these options were demand driven, we would be seeing a much higher option premium. I think what we have here that would explain the virtually non-existent premium would be many people who are trying to lower their cost basis on a long position they have in this stock. I think that is also where the options at 7.5 came from too since I think they were written when the stock moved up to 9. Now, is it a surprise to you that there would be many CC writers in this stock considering how the stock has dumped several times? The last dump was down to 5. So what I am saying is that anytime there are allot of options to expire at an in-the-money strike price, there will be downward pressure placed on the stock. This is a well-demonstrated phenomena in the marketplace where to observe this effect you do not have to understand specifically what causes it. Now if the price moves toward 5 I suspect like you there will be additional buying of the stock. However, do not forget the very large growing short position. This will not go away anytime soon. There are allot of people who actively are demonstrating that they think this stock will go down. If the stock were to move up, I think you will find this short position to grow. So I do not think the price of this stock will be moving anywhere in the near future. Also by stating this I am not saying that the stock is overpriced. Actually, for those who believe in a turnaround with Informix, I think the price of the stock is underpriced. Comments? Bob Graham