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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Emmo who wrote (20593)3/3/1998 8:18:00 PM
From: Joe Antol  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 42771
 
Here: Chew on this....It's Novell relevant.

But first:

You said:

<<<<<<<<<<<
Add up all the time you've spent on "Joe's War" and then ask yourself;
>>Am I Wiser!<<

Oh, most definitely YES!

>>Am I Richer?<<

Not by NOVL. But by a plethora of other securities.

>>Am I Happier?<<

Certainly. I'm always happy. Count the number of <G'S> in my posts.
They are definite indicators of "happiness".

>>I suggest you gather up all your negative energy and channel it into finding the next great investment. The past holds no rewards.<<

By this statement you make it sound like the "only" investment I have er.... had was NOVL. You are very, very wrong.

>>P.S. It's kind of hard getting through this thread when every other post is from you<<

Don't worry, it'll slack off because there's really nothing to say but answer the posts to and about me for the last 4 days, but in any event:

If you have trouble finding your way through the thread, I can't help you. "I suggest" you go find a "moderated" one. That way, you'll get a totally one-dimensional viewpoint that most academics can live with.

That's the only constructive comment I can give you.

And as I told Fred, you don't know diddly squat about me, my happiness, motviation or whatever. Nor do I about you, or care.

So leave the personal stuff out and concentrate on your investments.

Some "current" Novell "news" for you?????
(don't say I never gave you anything).
=======================================================

From CRN:
=========
March 02, 1998, Issue: 778
Section: Overheard

ShadowRam

Oh, what might have been. It just seems like Microsoft and Windows NT are
everywhere and Novell and NetWare are, well, missing in action. Even some
Novell developers acknowledge NT is the dominant platform in computer
telephony. If you have any doubts, just walk through CT Expo next week.
You will be able to count on one hand, perhaps one finger, the number of
developers running NetWare.

A former Novell exec wrote:"There were once a great many areas where
Novell could have had a play, but it's a bit late unless Eric Schmidt is looking
to drop a lot of cash to buy someone else's technology."
========================================================
From CRN 3/2/98

March 02, 1998, Issue: 778
Section: Channels

Novell cancels Platinum conference

Lee Copeland

Orem, Utah -- Novell Inc. will discontinue its Platinum Partners Briefing
conference indefinitely, company officials confirmed.

Held in the spring for the past five years, the annual conference gathered the
company's premier resellers and systems integrators for advance product
briefings and business strategy sessions.

Partners valued the opportunity to hear the advance information on products
and technology, in addition to having access to senior company officials. The
move is part of a larger effort to cut costs. Novell, based here, will replace
the conference with an online partner briefing and more training programs, the
company said.

A company spokesman said Novell is focusing resources into its Partner
Bootcamp program, described as an intensive weeklong tutorial on new
products.

The company expects the combination of online conferences and product
training to lower costs while serving the larger purpose of keeping its channel
abreast of developments. The online conference will occur in the first half of
the year, Novell said.

Novell estimated Platinum Partners at 650, up from 557 last year. Last year,
about 400 to 500 partners from around the world attended the three-day
conference in Los Angeles. All of Novell's key executives, including Chief
Executive Eric Schmidt and Chief Scientist Drew Major, spoke at the
Platinum Partners Briefing last May.

"I think it's the wrong thing to do. Their most valuable asset is the channel,
especially at a time when they need to pull everybody together," said Oli
Thordarson, president of Alvaka Networks Inc., a Huntington Beach, Calif.,
integrator and Platinum Partner. "There are a lot of companies out there
competing for our mind share, attention and virtual shelf space."
=========================================================
From: Internet Week 3/2/98

Lotus Mulls Whether Domino Will Run On
NetWare
(03/02/98; 3:36 p.m. EST)
By John Fontana, InternetWeek

IBM's Lotus division has not decided whether the next
release of its Domino messaging and collaborative
computing software will run on Novell NetWare.

The decision will have a major impact on the 14
million cc:Mail users that will ultimately need to migrate
to Domino or a competitive messaging platform over
time. A majority of those shops run cc:Mail on
NetWare servers. If Domino 5.0 is not available on
NetWare, it will force cc:Mail shops to consider not
only a new messaging system, but also a different
server platform.

A company spokesman said Cambridge, Mass.-based
Lotus is in "a wait-and-see mode, and more time is
required to examine market direction and assess
applicability to Domino plans."

The NetWare debate is the latest migration issue
Lotus faces with its cc:Mail users. A decision from
Lotus on its NetWare plans, expected later this month,
also could impact the long-term viability of the
network operating system.

Lotus is proceeding cautiously in part because any
decision regarding NetWare, the dominant platform
for cc:Mail users, very well could play into the hands
of competitors Microsoft and Novell. Lotus' cc:Mail
installed base is already agitated and won't welcome
any more news that complicates its migration efforts.

Although a majority of cc:Mail shops run it on
NetWare, only a small portion of the Domino installed
base runs it on the Novell platform today, said Steven
Hsu, an assistant consultant at 3D Computer Services,
a systems integrator.

Another Slap In Novell's Face
Indeed, a decision by Lotus to curtail NetWare
development could be a blow to an already hurting
Novell -- which announced first quarter earnings last
week that were sharply down, though still better than
expected -- in its battle against Microsoft's Windows
NT. But a decision to drop NetWare support could
also drive users to GroupWise if loyal NetWare shops
wait for NetWare 5.0, expected this summer.

Conversely, if Lotus abandons NetWare and pushes
cc:Mail users to NT, it makes Microsoft's Exchange a
much more attractive migration path, or at least a more
viable option than it was in the past.

"What it amounts to is how the whole migration will
play out," said Nick Shelness, the newly appointed
chief technology officer at Lotus. He said it's "an issue
of do I take my NetWare server that previously
hosted cc:Mail and do I put a Domino NLM
[NetWare Loadable Module] on there, or do I do
something else?"

Shelness said it's not as simple as, "Gee, here's this
client," referring to the company's development of
R6D, which will let cc:Mail R6 clients talk to Domino.
He declined to provide specifics.

One thing seems certain: Some cc:Mail administrators
considering the move to Domino want a clean break
from NetWare.

"We would never consider running Domino on
NetWare," said one cc:Mail administrator who wished
to remain anonymous. "It doesn't scale and it doesn't
perform well. It runs better on OS/2 than on
NetWare."

User Thinks "It's A Mistake"
But some cc:Mail users said they hope Lotus does not
curtail NetWare support.

"I think it would be a mistake," said Dennis Coons,
manager of IT for Ingersoll Rand, a manufacturer of
road machinery equipment. "You have some shops
that can't afford to move to NT and want to upgrade
their existing boxes. I hope this isn't another instance
of IBM's buying a company and sticking its hands
deep inside it."

Some say that is exactly what's happening. "Lotus is
trying to sell cc:Mail customers an IBM solution lock,
stock, and barrel -- the directory, the Web server,
everything," said Tim Sloane, director of research for
Internet infrastructure at The Aberdeen Group, in
Boston.

"If that's what they want, then they should be providing
a road map for NetWare users," Sloane said.

Bundle Of Problems To Solve
For now, NetWare users face many thorny issues.
Versions 3.x and 4.x do not have native TCP/IP
stacks, which means Domino's slick Internet features
will not be available. Gateways and patches exist, but
are not long-term solutions. Novell is adding native
TCP/IP in the next version of NetWare, code-named
Moab. Plus, Domino as an NLM is a memory hog.

"If they're trying to get cc:Mail users to Domino, they
want them at [Moab]," said Jamie Lewis, an analyst at
the Burton Group. "If NetWare shops can't use it,
that's a big problem."

Lewis said it's a significant migration issue for both
companies. "Lotus has an important decision to make.
It doesn't want to thumb its nose at Novell. Lotus'
biggest strength is cross-platform support, but it takes
significant dollars to build and support an NLM for
NetWare."

On the other hand, Novell "is very concerned," he
said. Novell could lose a critical installed base if
IBM/Lotus abandons native support of the platform.
NetWare users on 3.x waiting for the Moab release
and considering an upgrade of cc:Mail may throw up
their hands and standardize on NT.
========================================================

You "figure"that "press"" out. I certainly don't make it up.



To: Emmo who wrote (20593)3/3/1998 8:41:00 PM
From: Joe Antol  Respond to of 42771
 
Here Emmo. Maybe you don't want to skip this one. It's not negative...

BTW Emmo, "Why are you answering for Fred?" I asked "FRED" if he "Got it!!!!" in my post to him that you "jumped in on".

You wouldn't happen to be Fred Emmo, eh? Why are you answering for Fred? Fred's a big boy (big company and all that stuff that impresses me immensely). He can answer for himself.

Oh well, just thought that was kind of amusing. Emmo saying "I GET IT!!", when I directed that statement to Fred. Then Emmo pops up out of nowhere. Whatever Emmo. I could give a s*it what you think of me.

Anyway, back to the "postive stuff":

(however.....there's stillllllll those litttleeee qualifiers in the article.... always the little qualifiers....).

But a postive article nonetheless. Please don't say I just contribute vitriol. I've been here longer than you.

Oh Yeah, BTW, I've been thinking about what you and Fred have been saying (and Seren too). Like I told Seren. I'm essesntially break-even on this dog. So, what you guys are telling me, is, that I should buy in now at 10 and look for a "double" in 8-9 months, is that a correct reading on my part? Eh? I mean that's what I can logically deduce from the dialog on this board now. Yes?/No? Should I (and the lurkers on this board) take that advice?

Oh, here's the article:
___________________________________________________________________
Is Novell on the comeback trail?
Second consecutive profitable quarter impresses some, but
doubters remain.

By Christine Burns
Network World, 3/2/98

San Jose, Calif. San Jose - Wall Street analysts last week
stopped short of crowning Novell, Inc. CEO Eric Schmidt
the Comeback King. But based on Novell's latest financial
results, his company may be turning the corner.

Novell posted earnings of $14 million and revenue of $252
million for its fiscal first quarter, marking the company's first
operational profit since Schmidt took the reins last April.
Earnings per share weighed in at 4 cents, twice what Wall Street analysts were
anticipating.

"They're only halfway to what I would call a complete turn-around," said
Stephen Dube, an analyst with Wasserstein Perella Securities, of New York,
who raised his stock recommendation from "hold" to "moderate buy" based on
Novell's results. "But these numbers show they've beaten down the first few
obstacles to getting there."

This technically is the company's second consecutive quarter in the black.
However, last quarter's $7 million gain was only a result of income earned
from the $1 billion Novell has in the bank.

Novell's return to profitability is a crucial step for the company as it seeks to
repair its battered image. For the past couple of years, Novell has been
whipped by Microsoft Corp. Microsoft has not only won on the Internet front,
but its Windows NT Server has dethroned NetWare as the best-selling server
operating system.

In a conference call to Wall Street analysts, Schmidt said the company is right
where he expected it would be six months into his 18-to-24-month recovery
plan. ''Novell certainly is relevant again,'' he said.

Schmidt said he expects the company's ramped-up delivery schedule for new
versions of NetWare, BorderManager, ManageWise and GroupWise to fuel
continued success.

Novell attributed its first-quarter profit to harsh cost cutting moves that
included laying off 25% of its work force and significant channel inventory
reductions. These measures held operating expenses for the quarter to $192
million, $45 million lower than expenses in the same quarter last year.

This is how most corporate restructurings start, said Scott Reamer, an analyst
with Boston-based Cowen and Co.

''You need to control the infrastructure, i.e., the costs,'' he said. ''Stabilize them
there and then move on to focus on products and revenue.''

Users who have invested heavily in Novell technology were heartened by the
company's financial performance.

''Nobody wants to see the company who supplies 90% of your network
software waffle. So this is finally encouraging news,'' said Bill Kannberg,
technology manager for the Hillsboro County, Fla., government, which has a
2,000-seat NetWare 4.X network.

Despite the positive profit picture, financial trackers were alarmed by Novell's
33% drop in revenue from last year's first quarter to this year's. At this rate,
Novell will barely be able to maintain its $1 billion annual revenue.

Mary McAffrey, an analyst at Bankers Trust/Alex Brown, in New York, expected better revenue
numbers given that Novell shipped a number of new products last quarter. NDS for NT,
BorderManager FastCache and the Netscape Servers for NetWare all hit the street in the past three
months.

Giga Information Group, a technology consulting firm in Santa Clara, Calif., estimated that these
products will only pull down $50 million each this year.

''They are going to have to bank on something much bigger if they are going to get even close to the
revenue numbers they've enjoyed in the past,'' said Todd Chipman, an areas director with Giga
Information Group.

Stewart Nelson, vice president of Novell's products group, said the company is banking on
NetWare 5 - the firm's top engineering priority this year - to help boost revenue.

NetWare 5 is the next release of Novell's flagship product that Schmidt said will open up the
network operating system to Internet standards. This upgrade - which will enter its third beta cycle at
the firm's annual Brainshare user conference later this month - swaps out Novell's proprietary IPX
protocol in favor of standard TCP/IP. The product also will support server-side Java applications.

The company is on track to deliver NetWare 5 by midyear, Nelson said.
=====================================================================