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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DR. BOND who wrote (5793)	3/3/1998 11:04:00 PM
From: EyeDrMike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23519

Here's my interpretation on the news release: 1.) i believe this was a statement guided by legal counsel to avoid any potential repeat of last week's class action. No one can see the future, but by making these statements, they covered themselves. 2.) I don't think there is one single thing in this release that has not been known already. "......said it will post a first quarter loss" already known by everyone, check first call. " and that competition from Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) may hurt second and third quarter sales." keyword is "may", and everyone knows Viagra is coming, No one knows its efficacy, if and when it will be approved, the impact on MUSE sales, or the type of ED it will treat. ".... first quarter sales of its MUSE treatment for male impotence will come in at 1.8 million units -- the same as in the fourth quarter of 1997." how can they make the same number of units and have a loss? Because they are contractually bound to supply Astra a certain number of units at a lower margin. In return, they get upfront milestone payments and a free sales force. Once the new plant has received MCA approval, the old plant will supply US market, the new plant will supply UK international market. Until MCA approval, the old plant supplies both. Again, nothing no one was not aware of. ".... On Tuesday, Wilson said Vivus is producing about 600,000 units per day at its old 6,000 square foot facility and producing an undisclosed amount at its new plant, " This undisclosed amount of product is being inventoried at the plant. It will be shipped to the UK immediately upon MCA approval and recognized as revenue at that time. These revenues are NOT factored into the 1Q98 EPS estimates. So, potentially, VVUS could blow out numbers with MCA approval this Q. ".....he expects will obtain full regulatory clearance by May." Full regulatory clearance means MCA and FDA. MCA this Q, and FDA next Q. "..... Wilson said Vivus is currently manufacturing product in the new facility that is at "risk" because the plant has not won clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. "The new facility should give us the capacity to work through our back order. Demand activity is quite good and once we get regulatory (FDA) approval, we'll be able to ship this product," he said." Here it is in black and white, they are making product they cannot sell or claim as EPS until approvals by MCA and FDA. They have been producing at risk almost since Jan1, 1998. Do you have any idea what a full Q of production will do to the bottom line once approvals are given?? regards, Mike