To: blankmind who wrote (37418 ) 3/4/1998 7:44:00 AM From: Glenn D. Rudolph Respond to of 61433
Tuesday March 3, 8:01 pm Eastern Time TALKING POINT/Price pressures to clip tech stocks By Mary Kelleher NEW YORK, March 3 (Reuters) - First-quarter earnings in the technology sector could be in jeopardy as personal computer makers and semiconductor companies struggle against aggressive pricing trends sweeping the industry. The largest personal computer vendors -- Compaq Computer Corp. (CPQ - news), Dell Computer Corp. (DELL - news), Hewlett-Packard Co. (HWP - news) and International Business Machines Corp. (IBM - news) -- are making hefty price cuts which could hamper margins, particularly in the U.S. commercial market, analysts said. The cuts are driven by attempts to gain share in a competitive market where prices are always falling -- and some analysts said vendors might be looking for opportunities in North America because business has been weak in Asia. ''People, after bidding the techs up in January and February on the belief the worst was behind them, are now finding out that for a lot of tech companies the worst might be in front of them,'' said Dan Niles, an analyst at Robertson Stephens. ''Companies will be missing numbers and falling behind...'' At the same time, chip prices could be vulnerable because of an excess worldwide capacity and weak orders, they said. ''The fact is that we have a very aggressive component pricing environment, or pricing of things that go into personal computers,'' Richard Chu, an analyst at Cowen & Co, said. ''Certainly it is no surprise that the systems pricing continues to be competitive.'' Both PC and chip stocks stumbled on Tuesday. Compaq fell 1-2/16 to 29-15/16 and topped the New York Stock Exchange list of most active stocks, while Dell lost 3-1/4 to 132-3/8, IBM fell 5/15 to 101-5/8 and Hewlett fell 1-3/8 to 64-1/4. Intel Corp (INTC - news) slipped 2-7/16 to 85-3/16, Micron Technology Inc (MU - news) fell 1-5/16 to 33-1/16 and VLSI Technology Inc (VLSI - news) lost 2/16 to 18-15/16. Texas Instruments (TXN - news) fell 2-1/16 to 53-9/16. The American Stock Exchange's computer technology index had risen by 17 percent this year, up to Monday, before dropping by one percent on Tuesday, to 505.95. The tough PC pricing moves -- which some analysts say are being led by IBM and Dell -- could hurt technology margins in the near-term, analysts said. ''IBM appears to be leading the assault in pricing,'' market sources quoted Sanford Bernstein analyst Vadim Zlotnikov as saying in a research note. Other analysts said Dell was in a strong position because it had no channel inventory to drag down profits. ''Companies with little exposure to channel inventory can price more aggressively,'' Richard Gardner Jr, an analyst at Salomon Smith Barney, said. ''The large vendors are all starting to run into each other in the large U.S. commercial market.'' Merrill Lynch analyst Lucy Painter cut her near-term rating on Compaq Computer Corp. (CPQ - news) to accumulate from buy and reduced her first quarter estimate on the stock to $0.32 per share from $0.37 per share, citing aggressive pricing in the North American market. The downgrade followed comments by Compaq Chief Financial Officer Earl Mason, who told a Merrill Lynch technology conference on Monday that the pricing environment in January was a little tougher than originally thought. PC companies are cutting prices all across product lines from laptop computers to workstations. Hewlett said Monday it cut prices by up to 13 percent on its ''Kayak'' family of Pentium II-based workstations, and Compaq said it reduced U.S. prices for its Armada notebook line by 5.4 percent to 41.2 percent. ''We believe Compaq's multiple will be hindered over the next couple of months and the stock should trade at more of a discount due to intermediate-term uncertainties,'' she said. Sanford Bernstein's Zlotnikov also cut his 1998 estimate on Compaq by $0.10 per share to $1.65 per share, bringing his first quarter estimate to $0.32 per share from $0.36 per share, according to market sources. Zlotnikov was not available for further comment. ''Estimate reductions result from greater than originally expected competition in North American desktop and server markets,'' sources quoted Zlotnikov as saying. But William Milton, an analyst at Brown Brothers Harriman, said Compaq was holding its own against stiff pricing moves by IBM and Hewlett. Wall Street expects Compaq to earn $0.35 per share and Dell to earn $0.83 per share in the first quarter, according to a First Call consensus survey of analysts. Meanwhile, another prominent Merrill Lynch analyst, Thomas Kurlak, forecast semiconductor stocks could hit new lows during the summer and into autumn, because of excess global capacity due to weak orders. ''We don't believe the current rate of PC industry growth will be enough to offset price declines for semiconductor suppliers,'' Kurlak said in a research note. ''Going forward, fairly dramatic earnings per share revisions should be expected in the semiconductor sector.'' Declining growth rates for semiconductor unit sales point to end-market sales, Kurlak said.