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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis R. Duke who wrote (37442)	3/4/1998 7:31:00 AM
From: China Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Dennis, I owned Ascend for the last 3 months, bought 2k shares at 30, and sold at 34-36 last few days, and while I contemplated to get back in, I did a piece of simpled-minded analysis, and concluded it is not time yet. Data from Schwab: 3/3/98 97-98 EPS 98-99 EPS 97-98 PE 98-99 PE Csco 64 1/2 1.74 (july) 2.14 37 30 Coms 35 1/4 0.98 (may) 1.86 36 19 Asnd 33 7/8 1.06 (dec 97) 1.17 32 29 Bay 31 5/16 1.10 (June) 1.59 28 20 I think Asnd's price can weaken more for 3 reasons... 1. Asnd is relatively more pricy than Coms and Bay on the projected 98-99 PE scale. 2. The Lu buy-out rumor is getting less realistic in view of Lu's penchant for smaller companies. 3. The recent entry of Csco into the carrier class market. My humble projection of Asnd's price is 24-28 for the next move. hui sleepless in HK