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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (563)	3/5/1998 3:25:00 AM
From: Quincy	Respond to of 34857

So, you are implying that Qualcomm doesn't deliver what it promises? Then you wonder why people get defensive about stocks. I TRIED to enjoy using a GSM phone (Ericsson) as Pacific Bell was selling phones a full three months before Sprint and Airtouch (both CDMA). I got rid of that phone because its voice quality wasn't the best, the bills were higher, battery life shorter, and the coverage was crap. Qualcomm's "promise" works for me as I use their phone on a daily basis. I dumped my GSM provider because they failed to live up to their promise. Your fellow European's had a real reason to switch to GSM: it was a dramatic improvement in the eyes of the consumer. By the time UMTS reaches the marketplace, consumers will again evaluate which one sucks and if the new technology will justify the cost of changing phones. trac.org Business travelers will be able to consider Globalstar and Iridium phones for reliable roaming without renting a handset or trying to change a smart card/chip. UMTS has an uphill battle to fight for the worldwide roaming market. GSM has failed to live up to its promise for universal SIM roaming. In Europe, capacity problems may dictate that by next year, GSM will suck when a call won't go through. But, here in North America, you won't find that on CDMAOne. Will consumers endure overloaded GSM systems long enough for them to be upgraded, or will they switch to a different provider who doesn't have that problem? As far as Qualcomm "wasting" their research on the GSM overlay, doesn't Globalstar have to be GSM compatible for European customers? There are three things that will make 3GW take off: voice as good as IS95, capacity as good as IS95, and data better than IS95. UMTS is not off on a good foot: they need Qualcomm's core patents to solve the voice and capacity problem. Because of the wider bandwidth, UMTS will require at least twice as many microcells to provide the same coverage. While that sounds like cash drawers ringing for the equipment providers, I forsee homeowners blocking the installation of this equipment with religious enthusiasm. So much for coverage. Since Data is at best a WLL application up against technology like cable modems and PSTN data (ISDN, HDSL, ADSL, whatever) I don't see the market growth UMTS needs to invest in coverage needed for voice. Since UMTS data advantages are not going to automatically cause an appliance with Nintendo's selling power and economics to appear, what is left? I have not yet found someone who uses the Nokia 9000 but many co-workers and friends swear by the Palm Pilot(PC Magazine's Editors Choice) and the Apple Newton. So, what is going on with the 9000?. techweb.cmp.com UMTS must either work around Qualcomm's patents (something they have been trying to do for at least 5 years), accept Qualcomm's license terms, or face a rebellion from people who try to depend on UMTS phones for emergency calls and can't get through. Worse case, we will be faced with multiple standards for data. There is simply no way UMTS can solve the world roaming problem any better than GSM. Anyone been faced with the NTSC/PAL challenge yet? Didn't think so. Congratulations on Nokia's impressive rise in market valuation. I appreciate the discussion, Tero.