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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert A. Curtis who wrote (5134)	3/4/1998 10:19:00 AM
From: rtalley55	Respond to of 9068

CTXS up 2 at 10:10am ET. Also, great post NicholasC! <end>

To: Robert A. Curtis who wrote (5134)	3/4/1998 10:34:00 AM
From: Innuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

I'll take a stab at your question: First, I doubt CTXS will continue as an independent company for longer than 2 or 3 years. It is far too tempting a target. The issue is who will buy it. The possibilities IMO are SUN, Oracle, MSFT. Second, I doubt MSFT will remain as they are now. Everybody KNOWS they are monopoly and the issue is in what form will they continue to exist. I think the JOD business is very serious. They will be distracted by all this and will affect NT 5.0 lauch and features. I think this is ultimately good both for CTXS and the computer industry.

To: Robert A. Curtis who wrote (5134)	3/4/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: NicholasC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

Hi Robert, Redeployment and retraining are sometimes much larger expenses than one would think, sometimes the biggest cost. 3 Years from now, I believe that MSFT is beyond the 2 year part of the agreement but still under the 5 year. Therefore, from my understanding, CTXS will have an exclusive on non-Win95, non-WinNT still in 3 years(basically the whole UNIX market and plus new ideas such as OS in cable-tv box, etc.). As for after two years, Microsoft can broaden its competition with CTXS by offering load-balancing, etc. for Windows clients. While this is possible, it would be uncharacteristic of MSFT. As an example, the NT4 server CD comes with 3rd party software to work with RAS(Remote Networking), Microsoft's current remote access product. So, in this case, why didn't MSFT just add the 3rd party enhancements to RAS and take the money and business away from the 3rd party? Why promote the 3rd party(there isn't alot of other 3rd party software on CD)? I think because there isn't a real incentive. MSFT is going to keep the price of NT4 around where it's at. It's a loss-leader. Which, brings me to my next point... NT5 is coming in 2 versions, standard and enterprise. Standard for small office. Enterprise is for larger companies and will include alot of extra stuff, including Hydra. Therefore, MSFT is bundling Hydra - it's probably close to free. Just like Internet Explorer. In other words, MSFT is out to protect itself from competitors like Sun, Oracle and IBM because they pose as serious threat. Those that think that MSFT just wants to eat CTXS cake have to really think about it. Historically, MSFT has made moves to protect itself. They built E-mail into OS because it was strategic. Any 3rd party that wants to come to MSFT camp and support Exchange is welcome, as long as they remain in MSFT camp. CTXS is actually a stealth invader of other camps by giving the non-windows users(Sun, etc) access to MSFT's software which is just another way for MSFT to penetrate the enemy. Now, in all this time period, 2-5 years, CTXS is the only 3rd party that has access to Hydra. Not only did they write the program, they have the unlocking key to work with it. In other words, other 3rd parties can't get in. CTXS is in the unique position, has the cash and 2-5 years to move ahead of any would-be competitors( and that's, IMHO, not MSFT). Oh yeah. I figured a way that anyone can get some details on MSFT deal. Call investor relations. While they may not give copy of contract, I believe that they are obligated to disclose that answers to any direct questions. Oh yeah, yeah. You asked if there was anything to stop MSFT, etc. from competing in 3 years. Well, the world doesn't work that way. Anyone can compete with anyone the want to. So, anyone could have written a program all along to compete with Winframe if they wanted to. CTXS took that lead, got the cash, had the talent. In a practical sense, currently the only real potential competitors for Windows Terminal are MSFT and CTXS. And there are a few opposing views: 1) MSFT is so damn greedy that they don't want anyone to survive (dark empire) 2) MSFT is concerned that many would like to eat its lunch and they are just trying to protect themselves and maintain and and enhance their position as top-dog. -N