Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: peter michaelson who wrote (2507)	3/4/1998 1:19:00 PM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Peter in all fairness I never said the BJP would nuke China. The thought never occurred to me. I think the reverse is more probably true given the rigor of the Chinese army. I think kids are great and that inevitably deflation is coming to Asia (and maybe all of us if we aren't careful). Aside from that I don't think I am unrelievedly negative. Personally, I have watched the asset bubble in Japan ripen into something really monumental and grand; it has sucked other Asian economies into living in the same grand style. Tell me something. If you value the land that the Emperor's palace stands on in Tokyo at the same value as all the land in Calfiornia don't you think that is wonderful? Somehow this is something new and fantastic! Right? If you don't believe in this and you believe in gravity...what comes up must comes down...then I must say the banks that gave all these rotten loans to their golf cronies are going to come down badly ...for those that either borrowed or lent. I guess I am negative as a result. Turning to the BJP and India the reason I am negative about this development in the politics of the subcontinent is that immediately on the election being confirmed you have this sort of war-like rhetoric out of Islamabad. I didn't write this up... the Pakistanis did. Between times to give you some perspective... I watched in 1978-1980 the Iranian people en bloc rush to the side of the boat that Khomenie and the Mullah's occupied. The Shah, believe it or not, was a "progressive" and a "liberal" force in Iranian politics. For instance : wqomen were free to dance in public, wear mini-skirts, listen to music and to worship as a Bhai if they wanted. You have in Asia large numbers of hapless, underpriveleged people who believe that returning politically to the eternal cultural verities of traditional societies this will provide food, shelter and prosperity. Demogogues are not good for children, women or free thinkers. Almost en bloc the Iranian people gave the Shah and the progrssives the push. What is the future in front of Iran now? Population is out of control. The educational establishment as we measure it anywhere besides a "fundamentalist" society is in deep trouble. The society can only maintain it's cohesion by the declaration of endless "outside enemies" that have to be fought tooth and nail. With historical hindsight I'd give Indonesia 5% out of 100% of surviving. I'd give Pakistan 0% of surviving as a political entity. India I'd give one in five. China I'd give 2 in 3. Deflation. Yes. That is a pinprick.