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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith J who wrote (66)	3/4/1998 1:26:00 PM
From: Mark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1153

Keith Good bit of work. I was hoping to get around to this but just didn't get the time. If I get a chance I'll still run some numbers, and we can then compare notes. However, your answer sounds about right based on what I was thinking. Mark

To: Keith J who wrote (66)	3/4/1998 4:18:00 PM
From: JZGalt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1153

The $13,500 number seems high for the overall fleet. In the conference call the management specifically said that the day rates seen in the North Sea were going to be lower than the $14k displayed on the quarterly report. They suggested $13.5k which matches your assumption. The problem is this is only 30-35% of the revenue stream. The day rates in GOM are around $8.5k for supply boats as I reported from the conference call. This would be about 60 some odd percent of the revenue stream. If we mix the two: 13.50.35 + 8.50.6 --------------- 0.95 = $10.3k Brazil should be stable and not an issue. This is about 1/3 lower than your projection. You also assumed gross margins to be 60% instead of 67%. Again referring to the conference call they said that utilization rate would be around the 84-85% level from the 80% in the 4th quarter. Not sure how this would impact the gross margin in you calculations, but I would think it could be as high as the 65% (more for GOM, less for north sea). As you can see some relatively simple assumptions in margin, day rates and utilization can move this number around quite a bit, which is one of the reasons I think you have a spread in the analysts numbers as well as the volatility in the earnings estimates in TMAR over the past month or so. The continued long drydock times in the first quarter of 1998 took some of them by surprise IMO, and they started redoing the spreadsheets. Hence the estimate revisions. exchange2000.com for conference call notes. FWIW, I am not saying that your analysis is flawed, only that it is very sensitive to 3 assumptions (utilization, margin, day rates) which might not be apparent to those on the thread which don't crunch these sorts of numbers. My take is that the low end of the earnings estimate range is correct for the first quarter, but that is just an opinion. Perhaps after reviewing this message and my cc notes, you might give us an update on your calculation. ----- Dave