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Biotech / Medical : Oxford Health Plan (OXHP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SeanS who wrote (1226)	3/4/1998 3:15:00 PM
From: Worswick	Respond to of 2068

You have really asked the right guy.

To: SeanS who wrote (1226)	3/4/1998 6:09:00 PM
From: Raptor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2068

While I have certainly enjoyed my sparring with the good doctor, I feel compelled today to turn my attention to the mailman. First, of course, I had to take some advil to ease the pain in my rib muscles from the fits of convulsive laughter. When you say things such as << I wish that deal falls apart. We probably will get a much better deal as time passes. If indeed TPG had in mind to do the deal and then throw in 13th hour blackmail to sweeten the deal. I would tell them to WALK. The shareholders offered them more than enough, and at a vote would probably have been rejected by the shareholders. >>, I have to scratch my head. What are you talking about? It sounds like you had a big hit of crack and just spewed out whatever came to your mind. The shareholders offered them what, and when?? What would be rejected by shareholders? My man mail, you seem to be ignoring the fact that there IS a cash problem at Oxford, and a good sized one. Evidence: 1) exhibit a, the $100 million bridge loan from DLJ at interest rates from 11% on up. Do you know what quality of credit borrows money in the corporate world at 11%+?? answer( between not-too-good and totally desperate). If you want to believe the comments from Oxford officials, feel free. As to the article being old news, it is indeed news that has been available, but the popular press is actually way behind the story of what may unfold as one of the biggest riches to rags stories in recent stock market annals. I give credit to the writers for seeing through the spin and the hype and stating the facts. Ann Anderson has done more detailed work on this company than anyone, in my view, and could easily cover her short and walk away a huge winner. But she, like me, sees real danger here, and are playing it out to the end, just in case it does unravel. My position remains: If the company can close the financing, it removes the immediate threat of a financial collapse or intervention by the NY State Insurance Department. It would, however, leave a financially weak company with operating losses and huge debt service and preferred dividend requirements. You have to believe the stock would have a brief relief rally on the news, but I strongly believe the rally would fizzle and the stock would be dead money for quite some time. I put a 50-50 odds on the financing being completed, so i see $5 on the downside and $19-20 on the upside. I like the risk reward in that trade. Good luck to all.