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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rillinois who wrote (3763)	3/4/1998 9:00:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 42834

Very good points. While I agree with you that Brinker's overall approach of systematic investment in index funds is particularly useful for the average investor and that his "MoneyTalk" program is of immense benefit to thousands of listeners, I too believe that he, like any other mortal, would eventually fail when it comes to timing the market. Going by your detailed recap, it sure looks like there has been an attempt to put a positive spin on some past decisions. On the other hand, Brinker has called a few moves correctly. We have to concede that. However, I think that this can ensure only one thing -- and that is, when the big mistake is made by his followers, it will be made not with any fear or uncertainty or doubt or hesitation, but with supreme confidence. Dipy.

To: Rillinois who wrote (3763)	3/4/1998 9:10:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42834

RE: New Asia Fund Fact: I purchased the fund in late 1992 or early 1993 based on Bob's recommendation. Fact: I sold the fund in 1997 at about $9.20 per share based on Bob's recommendation. My total gain was 53%. Fact: Immediately after Bob's recommendation, the fund's share price dropped to about $4.50. Thus, Bob prevented me from experiencing a 50% decline in the value of my account. Fact: I transferred the money into a European stock fund that Bob recommends, based on his high opinion of the fund and the prospects for Europe. Since that time, the account has gained almost 20%. It is evident that you have a bitter taste in your mouth when the subject turns to Bob Brinker. You seem to want to discredit him for some reason. Are you one of the Bad News Bears or financial advisors that Bob makes fun of on the show? Best wishes, I2

To: Rillinois who wrote (3763)	3/6/1998 5:45:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Respond to of 42834

If you think Brinker is a "liar" (about New Asia or anything else), then you are saying that he has no integrity in my view and, in my opinion, you should not listen to him about anything. BTW, I strongly disagree with this statement. I do not think Brinker is a liar at all. Specifically, his post response to you, if accurately quoted, is not a lie: "New Asia was eliminated from all Model Portfolios and the Recommended List effective July 11, 1997 at a price of $9.15 per share due to concerns about performance prospects in the Asian Theatre. We reinvested the monies in international growth. We did not reinvest the monies in another Asian fund because we were not bullish on the Asian outlook. Since July 11, New Asia fund has declined 38% through December 29 inclusive. So far, it appears the decision to pull out of New Asia is a good one!" When Brinker says that he was concerned "about performance prospects in the Asian Theatre" it well could mean that he was concerned about the "performance prospects" of this fund "in the Asian Theatre." After all, this is an Asian fund to begin with. New Asia was underperforming other Asian funds at that time. His statement is no lie at all in this context. That is perfectly consistent with his MarketTimer statement that he was dropping New Asia due to lagging performance. The fact that he went into International Growth is irrelevant in my opinion. The decision could well have been a reason to diversify across countries and not to take geographical specific risk in Asia for asset allocation reasons. I think you had better be careful about calling someone a liar based upon that kind of weak argument. I think, however, as I have stated before that Brinker does leave the impression on the air usually through omission that his New Asia deletion was something more. I think you are mixing his on air statements and omissions with his written words in coming to your conclusion. But he is in no way lying. You say: "Not even you, Bob, can time the market." Not true in my opinion. He has timed the market in noting buy opportunities for the past several years. He makes the big calls because he realizes nobody can time the market on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis consistently. He has said this over and over again on the air in reviewing the likes of Fabian's (sp?) Timing letter and the like. He also realizes the tax implications of darting in and out of the market let alone the lost opportunities in being wrong in that short term timing. (I am surprised that this thread has failed to note what made his most recent call so brilliant when compared to his other ones. Anyone?) MarketTimer Digest ranks him as the number 2 in timing over, I think, the past five years. I hope you don't think he is some kind of monkey behind the microphone banging the bullish case for no reason other than to remain fully invested at all times. If you do, you should not listen to him. Do you think he should have been out of the market at sometime during the past 16 years? Please explain.