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Gold/Mining/Energy : Trico Marine Services (TMAR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JZGalt who wrote (76)	3/4/1998 7:09:00 PM
From: Keith J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1153

I took a closer look, found a couple additional data points, and made my estimate more conservative. Still came up with 46 cents. Below is the numbers, the next post will have some assumptions/rationale/caveats, etc. 9/97 Qtr. 12/97 Qtr. 3/98 Qtr. (Est.) Rates 7590 8037 7500 Supply n/a 14056 13500 Supply (Anchor) 6013 6694 6000 Lift 2045 2049 2000 C/LH Utilization 85 80 84 Supply n/a 97 90 Supply (Anchor) 76 71 70 Lift 98 97 97 C/LH Average Units 47.7 48 48 Supply n/a 5.4 16 Supply (Anchor) 6 6 6 Lift 23 23 23 C/LH Income Statement 34094 41601 50996 Revenue 11168 (33%) 13596 (33%) 20398 (40%) Direct Costs 22926 28005 30598 Gross Profit 1425 1579 1737 G&A 886 928 1100 Amort. of Inspection/Misc. 3319 (10%) 4739 (11%) 6629 (13%) Depreciation 17296 20759 21132 Operating income 2216 4088 6575 Other expenses, including interest 15080 16671 14557 Earnings before taxes 5279 (35%) 5818 (35%) 5095 (35%) Taxes 9801 10853 9462 Net income 0.58 0.61 0.46 Fully diluted income/share

To: JZGalt who wrote (76)	3/4/1998 7:26:00 PM
From: Keith J	Respond to of 1153

A couple points and comments about how I came up with some numbers and where my estimates may be off. As I said, I tried to be fairly conservative. But at least it should be a good starting point to do some what-if analysis: I used 20,684,000 as fully diluted shares outstanding (based on public offering and earlier data). I calculated interest at 8.5% for the 70 million and 110 million debt offerings, and added interest at 10% for an additional 110 million for revolving credit (in order to finance the acquisition). I increased depreciation because it appears, at first glance, the acquired equipment may have higher depreciation charges (as percent of revenues). Also bear in mind the Dec. quarter had higher day rates, but lower utilization was offsetting. Plus the new equipment only was operating 1 month of 3. So I increased to 13%. A piece of new equipment is supposed to begin sometime in March, which I ignored. We know the 12 pieces of equipment coming out of drydock had rates of 8500+, but I ignored. I dropped the Anchor utilization rate to 90%, even though I don't know if this was necessary. KJ