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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew H who wrote (16485)	3/4/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: tonyt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

Here's what MONEY had to say: Intel plunges on negative earnings news Expect reverberations throughout the tech sector by Michael Brush Heads up! The earnings warnings we have been cautioning you about in the past two weeks are here. And it doesn't look good. Bellweather chip maker Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) warned after the market's close Wednesday that first quarter revenue will be 10% lower than expected, largely because of a slowdown in demand from personal computer makers. The stock was initially halted, and then dropped about $10 once after-hours trading began. The announcement will catch many investors off guard because they have been comforted by Intel's recent efforts to talk down expectations -- and lulled into thinking the worst news was out. But the writing was on the wall, in the form of news this week that inventories are building at Compaq Computers (NYSE: CPQ). "Intel had already been guiding estimates down, so this will be a surprise," says Carl Wiese Hokanson Capital Management in Encinitas, Calif. "It is going to wash through all the chip stocks. All these chip stocks have rallied and now we have a disappointment." Despite the solid growth at Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), doubts about PC sales arose earlier this week when speculation circulated that product is piling up at Compaq. "With Compaq the rumors have been that the channel inventories are high, and obviously they are a big purchaser of Intel chips," says Wiese. "We are seeing too much inventory among the PC manufacturers." In addition to lower revenue, Intel says gross margins will be around 53%, lower than earlier expectations. In the long run, the company said, margins should stay around 50%. Intel also said costs related to its acquisition of Chips and Technologies Inc. will reduce earnings by about $165 million, or 9 cents per share, in the first quarter. The news should send chip stocks on a roller coaster ride. Many traded higher Wednesday on news that Robertson Stephens had increased its rating in Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) (see below). Micron and other chip stocks rose on the news, even though Robertson Stephens analyst Niles warned another sell off in the sector would bring better buying opportunities some time in March. His prediction may come true sooner than he thought. Chip stocks surge on Micron upgrade Still, that doesn't mean you should buy just yet By Michael Brush Semiconductor stocks showed good strength Wednesday, but even the analyst who stirred up all the interest says you shouldn't be buying just yet. Despite an overall weakness in the tech sector, many chip stocks bounced up nicely Wednesday on news that BancAmerica Robertson Stephens analyst Dan Niles upgraded semiconductor maker Micron Technology (NYSE: MU). His reasoning: Japanese chip makers have slowed down their orders for equipment. That means their production will be coming down as well, bringing supply and demand back in line by the end of the year, predicts Niles. "We believe that cutbacks in capital expenditures will lead to demand outstripping supply by year end...and firm up prices as we work our way through 1998," Niles says. Before then, though, a couple of things will happen that will knock the stuffing out of these stocks once again. They are: * Japanese DRAM makers will dump inventory as they reach the end of their fiscal year in March. * Near-term estimates for Micron will be reduced by other brokerages after the company announces earnings, scheduled for March 17. This quarterly profit release should be the low point for earnings, and also the stock, says Niles. * Other tech companies will preannounce or guide down estimates in March. After these events, Micron will "become much easier to own," says Niles. Indeed, he thinks in the near term the stock could slip back down to $30 or lower, creating a much better buying opportunity than that realized by investors picking up the stock today. "We would accumulate the position slowly and patiently as the stock continues to decline," he says. Those who wait should be amply rewarded if Niles' view on the stock is correct. He says it will reach $45 within 12 months. The semiconductor sector has recovered recently since the selloff that peaked last December, but many analysts, including Tom Kurlak of Merrill Lynch, have been predicting things would get worse again before they got better. See Jan. 30's Money Daily at: pathfinder.com for more. The reason, supply is still much greater than demand, and many of the big Korean chip makers plan to aggressively exploit the weakened Korean currency to increase their global sales. In addition, the bounce in DRAM prices earlier this year that brought the stocks back up was just a false alarm, they say. DRAM supply and pricing was driven to artificially low levels late last year before the recent bounce -- as Asian producers dumped inventory to raise much-needed cash, and computer makers did the same because of doubts about personal computer demand. But that overreaction lead to a temporary shortage in the market, when then caused DRAM prices to bungee jump back up earlier this year. That gave a false impression that underlying fundamentals were getting better. But the overall conditions of oversupply did not really go away. The imbalance probably won't be corrected until later this year or 1999, depending on whom you listen to. But the semiconductor stocks should recover before that since investors price in conditions six to 12 months ahead of time. Anyone investing in chip stocks like Micron should keep in mind the usual warnings. The industry is highly cyclical, it is largely dependant on the cycles in PC sales, and a strengthening of the dollar against the yen or Korean won can lower DRAM prices, which can hurt some producers. That said, there is no better time to buy than the bottom, assuming you have the patience to wait for it.

To: Andrew H who wrote (16485)	3/5/1998 1:32:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

Speaking of understanding, LGND will soon be targeting Alzheimer's with designer estrogens (and rexinoids?). This came out yesterday (John Groome, LGND board member, was CEO of Athena): Wednesday March 4, 4:03 pm Eastern Time Company Press Release Estrogen Therapy for Prevention and Treatment of Alzheimer's -- Studies Look Good But Still Too Soon to Tell SAN FRANCISCO--(BW HealthWire)--March 4, 1998--In the United States alone, about 30 million women are treated with estrogen replacement therapy (ERT) for symptoms of menopause, a number which has grown exponentially over the past ten years. While it is widely believed that ERT also helps prevent heart disease and osteoporosis, its efficacy in preventing dementia and improving cognition in postmenopausal women is frequently suggested but less clear. Hoping to settle this hotly debated question, researchers at the San Francisco Veterans Affairs Medical Center and the University of California San Francisco reviewed every published estrogen study and reached some conclusions. Their findings are published in today's issue (March 4) of The Journal of the American Medical Association. ''It appears there is an association between estrogen replacement therapy and prevention of dementia but whether thus is due to estrogen use per se, or to other factors associated with ERT remains to be seen,'' said Kristine Yaffe, MD, head of the department of geriatric psychiatry at the SFVAMC and UCSF assistant professor of psychiatry. ''Translation: it might help but it might not.'' Possible reasons for the apparent positive effect of ERT on preventing dementias include a patient's age, education, socio-economic background, overall health, and medication compliance. Yaffe points out that the typical characteristics of patients who opt for ERT are the same variables associated with a low incidence of Alzheimer's and other dementias. The team first reviewed the literature and then analyzed the ten studies which addressed the association between postmenopausal ERT and the risk of Alzheimer's disease or other dementias. Since several studies indicated a clear benefit while a few suggested no effect or an actual increase of dementia associated with estrogen use, the researchers performed a meta-analysis. A meta-analysis is a statistical method of combining the results of smaller previous studies to illustrate their outcomes better. Results of the meta-analysis suggest that ERT reduces the risk of developing Alzheimer's disease and other dementias by almost 30 percent. According to Yaffe, the study's lead author, a meta-analysis helps to put the studies' original results in perspective but it cannot fix some of their individual shortcomings. ''What we've done is summarize all of the available data in a way that lets us see the big picture,'' said Yaffe. The researchers conclude that large, placebo-controlled trials are required to determine accurately the role of ERT in prevention and treatment of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. Several such trials are underway but meaningful results will not be available for several years. Without those findings, Yaffe says it is premature to use ERT for prevention of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, or for treating these dementias. So how does a postmenopausal woman decide if ERT is appropriate for her? ''Like every medical treatment, this is a highly individualized decision,'' said Yaffe. ''Women should discuss estrogen therapy with their primary care doctor and weigh all the pros and cons. There are many important factors that must be taken into account such as a patient's medical history and her family history of heart disease, osteoporosis or breast cancer.'' Estrogen is a naturally occurring sex hormone, primary produced in the ovaries, which regulates certain reproductive functions in women. Women's bodies stop producing estrogen at menopause, which typically occurs around age 50. When the production of estrogen initially ceases, many women experience symptoms which can be quite severe, such as hot flashes with accompanying insomnia and night sweats, nausea and heart palpitations. It is commonly held that decreased estrogen levels in postmenopausal women are associated with an increased risk of heart disease and osteoporosis. Hence, many women take ERT for their symptoms of menopause as well as to prevent the two diseases. If estrogen does prove to help prevent dementia, it would be of major public health importance. Approximately ten percent of people over the age of 65 and nearly half of those more than 85 years old have dementia. Alzheimer's disease, the most common cause of dementia, is estimated to affect 3.75 million Americans at a cost of $67 billion annually. Co-investigators on the study included George Sawaya, MD, UCSF assistant professor of obstetrics & gynecology; Ivan Lieberburg, MD, PhD, UCSF clinical professor of medicine and vice president of research at Athena Neurosciences; and Deborah Grady, MD, MPH, UCSF associate professor of medicine and epidemiology. Contact: University of California, San Francisco James Larkin, 415/750-6633