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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Oeconomicus who wrote (4062)3/4/1998 9:06:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 18691
 
RDB: if you have read some of my posts on my thoughts on Asia one of the points I make, in the case of the US is that it is not only exports to Asia that will suffer, exports elsewhere will also suffer as we have to compete with the cheap Asian stuff everywhere. Another factor for sure is that the US is not the only nation exporting to Asia others are and if their exports are weak they may import less US stuff. The repercutions, IMO go farther than anyone imagines. I have lived through some very deep devaluations in SA and I can tell you people in this country don't even dream how bad it can get. The Asian crisis IMO is the SA crisis of the 80's multiplied by a factor of 5.

Pancho

BTW: I am no economist,but who cares I don't think they do a much better job at forecasting than a monkey would.



To: Oeconomicus who wrote (4062)3/4/1998 9:55:00 PM
From: RealMuLan  Respond to of 18691
 
<<Intel said that Europe, the Americas and Japan are weaker right now than the rest of Asia.

I think the reason for this might be that the growth rate in China is still projected as 8% or so, and China has not devalue its currency yet. And in terms of the computer market, I would say Chinese market now is perhaps bigger than the rest of Southeastern Asian countries combined, just IMO.