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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike M2 who wrote (26387)	3/5/1998 7:11:00 AM
From: Earlie	Respond to of 132070

Mike: You are probably correct, but since INTC supplies the whole industry, the inference ought to be obvious. (g) I also note a nasty warning from Read-Rite, and AMD. Mitsubishi also stated that they are getting out of the Japanese desk-top PC market......I wonder why. (g) On another matter, I am spending a good deal of time endeavouring to keep track of Japan's efforts to meet the April 1 "deregulation" requirements. I would have bet heavily that they would postpone for at least a year, but so far, they have not. The aspect of this that frightens me the most is the carnage the banks are inflicting on their small and medium sized businesses as the banks systematically call in the vast majority of the loans. (better than 2/3 of Japan's GDP is dependent on small and medium business). The damage has already been staggering, and yet our journalists ignore this. The Japanese economy cannot take this without additional major damage (at exactly the wrong time), as it is already in a serious deflationary spiral. The consumer is buying next to nothing except essentials already. Inter-bank commerce across Asia has slowed to a crawl following the big Indonesian default, and this is ominous to say the least. The banks do not trust each other. Japanese savers are pulling huge amounts of money out of their banks daily (exacerbating the situation for the banks) and putting it into the Postal Savings System, or into American branch banks, or into their safes (big run on safe purchases of late). This situation is getting out of hand and could really become a bomb. Any investor who thinks the U.S. is insulated from events in Asia has his head in the sand. By the summer, it will be obvious. Best, Earlie

To: Mike M2 who wrote (26387)	3/5/1998 10:53:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike, One whole pc co. is doing well, so the industry is in great shape. -g- MB

To: Mike M2 who wrote (26387)	3/5/1998 11:14:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Respond to of 132070

I am surprised at how calm the mkt is thus far. I think even the bulls must be surprised but we should have learned by now it is difficult to predict how far irrational exuberance can carry a mkt. The bigger the boom the bigger the bust-time is on my side. Mike

To: Mike M2 who wrote (26387)	3/8/1998 7:04:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Mike: Looks like the "company-specific" problem is spreading (g) I've seen a lot of crazy things in my life, but Friday took the cake. INTC warns, MOT warns, TXN warns, AMD warns, Read-rite warns, etc, etc., yet the market flies, and the tech stocks hitch a ride. Today's market motto ought to be "pay more and more for less and less". Meantime, the problems in Asia spread. Mexico is starting to look worrisome to Jim Grant's trained eyes, and my contacts in South America are looking over their shoulders as well. Indonesia just continues to melt and the bank runs in Japan continue unabated. Luckily we have nothing to worry about over here. (g) Good friend Ross Healy (who writes some of the best Balance sheet analysis that I have ever read), suggested to me months ago that the market might get to 1090 (S&P). I thought at the time that he was crazy, and bet him a lunch that it wouldn't come close. I lost, he won. The good news is that we are just about there. Tomorrow will be of interest to all of us. With CPQ's fessing up on Friday (love their timing), many think that there will be a big sell-off. We'll see. If not, then I'll move to the sidelines again for a bit more waiting. This market is downright dangerous in the way that it just ignores bad news, but it doesn't pay to play on the railroad tracks. Best, Earlie