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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bilow who wrote (1967)3/5/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: Ken Pomaranski  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
<< Short sellers are generally thought to be more astute than
the general public >>

That may be true, but just because you short doesn't mean you're
smart! Anyone can short.

Also, that general statement probably isn't true anymore. With the
advent of boards like SI, AOL, etc.. What you are seeing is more of
the retail investor 'trying their hand' at shorting. Just look
at the list of threads in SI:

"HARRY'S TOP SHORT PICKS"
"FRED's OVERVALUED STOCK SHOWCASE"
etc... not sure of the exact names, but you get the picture ;)

I would be willing to bet that 1/2 the people shorting AMZN are first
time shorters. Anybody want to take me up on that? They read these
threads, get excited, then short up the gazoo. I hope this goes on
for awhile more...

I would also bet that NO professional shorters are in this one
yet.

The shorts will get burned because their entire argument rests
upon only two points. (the same 2 points for 10 months, I might
add):

(1) AMZN is overvalued (based on the past) (duh!!!!!)
(2) AMZN will not expand into other retail areas, and will die
when B&N and Bhsduuasdadao get their acts together.

The bullish case to counter that is VERY, VERY simple:

(1) who cares, it's the future of e-commerce that matters
(2) AMZN's name & presence on the web is FAR, FAR greater than
ANY other retailer on the net. They have a huge lead.
(3) e-com WILL explode

The last thing I want to leave you with is this point:

Stocks tank when they miss expectations. No one has expectations
for AMZN until 2000. If they are profitable before then, the shorts
will be crying all the way to the bank.

To prove this point look at INTC. Look at IOM. High expectations:
crash. AMZN, no one expects anything...

Well, good luck to all of you!

kp