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To: Rocky Reid who wrote (49390)	3/5/1998 12:29:00 AM
From: Cogito	Respond to of 58324

>>But remember, at least Intel had the common courtesy to WARN investors BEFOREHAND!<< Rocky - Sure, but where was the pre-warning warning? Seriously, though, I really wonder how this warning helps investors. The announcement hit after hours, and the stock is going to get a serious haircut tomorrow. If they waited until the quarterly report, it would get the haircut then. What's the difference? BTW, Rock, I'm not actually asking you. I'm just making a point. Please don't feel that you have to respond. - Allen

To: Rocky Reid who wrote (49390)	3/5/1998 12:29:00 AM
From: FuzzFace	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58324

<at least Intel had the common courtesy to WARN investors BEFOREHAND!> Big deal! They also guided analysts estimates upwards in Jan. Bottom line is, Cramer had it right 2 weeks ago: don't be in tech stocks during warning season. archive.thestreet.com The tech world sees an opportunity. A two-week opportunity. And it is taking it. It's an open secret that with the exception of the miraculous Dell, East Asia is a mess. Latin America is questionable. We don't know if the U.S. has slowed down. And nobody knows the strength of the PC market, ex-Dell. So why is tech flying? Because we have about 10 days before blow-up period and you gotta take the gains when you can get them. Trading in tech resembles a giant game of chicken, Rebel Without a Cause style. You know the car could go over the cliff. You know the guy next to you is driving a car that could go over the cliff. But you also know that while the car is going, you are getting one hell of a thrill. So you stay in until right before the crash and then you jump out and win. We have 10 days before we have to worry about the cliff. That's when tech companies have to fess up and admit that with more than two-thirds of the quarter in they don't think they can make Street estimates. So they have to preannounce. How formal and well-known is this phenomenon? Among dedicated tech investors, this schedule is ingrained. Among those dabbling, it is unknown. How are we going to play it? We will probably cut back on our dicier tech holdings, the ones we have less conviction on, right at the beginning of March. We figure we can win the game of chicken then. Those who stay on may discover that orders aren't up to snuff and they will be facing the cliff by themselves. All of that said, nontrader types don't even have to think about this stuff. Maybe their companies will blow up and then they can buy more, and maybe they won't. This tension is where the low-commission style of trading clashes with the capital gains laws. I can tell you one thing, though, no partner likes it when you cite the capital gains laws as a reason why you rode into an earnings blow-up without seeing it coming. They like you to jump out of the car. So do I.