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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BelowTheCrowd who wrote (17136)	3/5/1998 12:36:00 AM
From: robbie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

<<Then INTC is free to put the screws on everybody.>> Doesn't look like they're in a position to screw anybody right now! Any more screwing and they have a stock price of 50! Seriously, I love it that Compaq uses AMD and Cyrix as well as INTC. And soon they own the Alpha too. They are Intel's biggest customer still though and I hope the days are over that the biggest customer can be bullied by the supplier. Robbie

To: BelowTheCrowd who wrote (17136)	3/5/1998 10:40:00 AM
From: Clarksterh	Respond to of 70976

Reasons for Intel shortfall: 1) Move to sub $1000 PCs, where Intel only supplies 75% of the microprocessors, and probably moving lower. I also suspect that this is the only segment of the PC market that is experiencing substantial revenue growth. 2) Inventory reduction at the major PC suppliers in an attempt to stay competitive in a falling prices market. To use numbers from MG, lets assume a move this quarter from 4 weeks to 3 weeks. If we make some additional WAGs, it turns out (with 20/20 hindsight) that this cut shouldn't be a surprise, even though the total revenues for PCs are climbing. WAGs: 1) Sub $1000 PCs are growing revenues at 50% since last year, and made up 30% of the PC market last year (and near 40% this year). Not unreasonable, but definitely a WAG. 2) Other PCs made up 70% of the PC revenues last year, and they grew at 10%. The result of these assumptions is that we should expect Intel revenues to drop 10% even though PC revenues are actually increasing at 20%. Anyone have better numbers for to remove the WAGs? Comments welcome. Clark