Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (4953)	3/5/1998 3:38:00 AM
From: Jong Hyun Yoo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

One of the bargain might be Lam Research(LRCX). It has the lower PSR ratio of all semi-equipment companies. A couple of weeks ago, it announced company wide restructuring plan with 10% work force reduction. During the conference call, CEO of the company said that outlook for the semi-equipment environment remains very much pressured due to overcapacity of the supply especially on DRAM side and economic problems in Asia region. He said that he might be "overly pessimistic" but the reduction in work force and restructuring plan is necessary to endure this uncertain time. It seems as though CEO Jim Bagley assessment of the situation is right on track given Intel's warning today. He seems to be very much focused in his plan for the future and still thinks that 1999 will be a tremendous year for Lam. When they endure this time with improved gross margin and manufacturing efficiency in Alliance based TCP product, Lam will come out as a big winner during expected upturn in 1999. With EPS of $4, level achieved two years ago, and trailing PE of 15 - 20, this stock has an upside potential of as least $70 a share. Currently, it is trading at around $28. Tomorrow, should it drop much, it should be a great chance to buy.

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (4953)	3/5/1998 6:43:00 AM
From: Jonathan Edwards	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Intel has cited weaker than expected demand from PC manufacturers. I wonder whether AMD and Cyrix (now part of National Semi), who may better positioned to supply the sub-$1000 PC market, are seeing the same thing or are increasing market share. I will be very very interesting to see what happens to AMD's stock today, in particular.

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (4953)	3/5/1998 3:25:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Since you asked my opinion :) At today's prices, all I'm holding are ASYT and ESIO, the Asyst at a loss and the ESIO at about where I bought it. The news from Intel and AMD seems to worry me more than the market. I'm gonna hold some cash for a while, or buy some nice stable issue like DSYS <g>.

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (4953)	3/5/1998 8:02:00 PM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 10921

<My question is which among the semi-equips are the best investment picks?> I'll tell you what...given the debacle today SVGI sure "looks" good...didnt sell off that much. There are buyers around. I think people are starting to pick up on this "lithography" story as being where money will have to be spent even in a downturn. So Cymer and ASMLF as well? Of course if this pans out it may just mean that they won't sell off much while the others get pounded...hence "outperforming"! DAK

To: Czechsinthemail who wrote (4953)	3/6/1998 8:17:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 10921

Baird and all: An Asian update (not for the weak at heart!) I have been waiting to write this until I could say something in conjunction with the semiconductor business. Today two daily notes came out from Infrastructure, and the outlook over there is very grim for the remainder of this year. Infra has a list of who they like (and Baird, Cymer isn't on it although I too have a small position in it since I think .25 micron and beyond has to be the only place expansion in the industry will take place for a while, although there's clearly other ways to play the transition) but the list is small and things will not be rosy even for those companies. In semiland, order pushouts in semi equipment in Asia are the order of the day. There will be a lot of announcements coming out of Japan, there will be more coming from Korea, and now even Taiwan may be looking weaker. In addition, there is a lot of problems with shrinking demand for PCs and the fragmentation of the PC market, not all of the economics of which I understand. It is the general economic picture, however, and particularly in Asia that is more troubling to me. Let me list a few things of concern: (1) Again, first and foremost, the Japanese. Still in a state of total denial, the Nikkei rallied today on yet more hopes of another economic stimulus package. There isn't going to be any, because the only thing the government can do is lower taxes, and (a) there's a limit to how much of that they can do, and (2) it won't help anyway. Japanese people are not going to rush out and spend the money like idiotic economic lemmings. The major auto makers are reporting dramatic reductions in domestic consumption of automobiles. My guess is that all other major appliance and durable goods manufacturers are reporting (or soon will) the same. The economy in Japan is going into deep recession if not outright depression, and I don't think the Japanese government has any monetary policy tricks left to stop the slide. My prediction for a Nikkei at 10,000 and the yen at 150 by June 1 still stands. Corporate reports are only now starting to come out that reflect earnings since the start of the Asian meltdown. They are grim and will continue to be so for some time. (2) Indonesia has already started to cheat on the terms of the IMF bailout package, imposing price ceilings on imports of grain instead of letting the market set prices to insure that some food gets to the people. The IMF is turning a blind eye to the violations, because the fact that the people still have food is the only thing preventing a massive revolt involving millions in the streets and wholesale bloodbaths with the beefed-up military. I cannot begin to describe the massive corruption involving Suarto and his family except to say that it makes Ferdinand and Immelda Marcos look like absolute pikers by comparison. I bet that Suarto's family owns and controls firms (and industries) that account for more than 25% of Indonesia's GNP. It has been tolerated so far because people could look at Indonesia and say, "look what he's done for the country." Now they have a clearer picture: He's ruined it. (3) Tremors rippled through the Malaysian banking sector today. There has been an overbuilding spree in the property market there for several years, and its finally becoming apparent that a lot of bad loans to the property sector are not going to turn good anytime soon. I do not know the extent of the problem, but it appears that a lot of bad debt on the books of Malaysian banks has yet to be recognized. (4) As mentioned earlier, a heavy round of inflation is looming on the horizon as it becomes public knowledge about the extent to which the banks in SE Asia (HK's banks excluded) have simply been printing money to stay liquid as loan revenues have declined and losses on currency transactions (the two often tied together) have mounted. I have for two weeks now listened to one regional analyst after another uniformly say that the (a) problems in SE Asia are far from over, and (b) there will not now be any real recovery now perhaps for the remainder of the calendar year (funny how this coincides with C. Johnson's predictions for the semiconductor industry.) Baird, I don't think the blood is flowing yet, but it may soon. jess