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Technology Stocks : Atmel - the trend is about to change -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: turbi who wrote (7977)	3/5/1998 11:23:00 AM
From: Jim Lou	Respond to of 13565

The book value is $9.02, current stock price is much less than twice book value. I see that plus what Frank said about the flash market as an indicator of 'bottom'. This is the lowest level in a matter of years! Hopefully Asia is recovering fast. The impact of Intel earnings shouldn't last long. Here is info about the fundamentals of the stock: biz.yahoo.com

To: turbi who wrote (7977)	3/5/1998 12:14:00 PM
From: Frank Chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13565

Turbi, I wouldn't worry too much about the earning projection at this stage. What you need to make money in the market is to separate facts from emotion. I think if we can get the future direction of the eps picture right, that's good enough. Even if the stock is out-of-favor right now, it is actually the best time to buy against the herd, and you make big money this way. Emotionally, I see lots of investors love this stock for its past history. I would suggest everyone base their investment on concrete facts and future potential. To get the future picture for this stock, you have to study the facts. Facts are, the Fab is running, other manufacturers are exiting the market, the demand is still growing 40% YTY, price is firming, the new markets ATML enters are growth segments, the management is investing while others are holding back. All these facts combined, the company will be in the best position to take advantage of the boom when it comes. Also, you need margin of safety. Not that the company should sell if someone tries to take over, but the price is getting to the point that is below the intrinsic value of the company. I feel anywhere around 10-15 is going to trigger interest of value investors and suitors alike. Let's be conservative here, the profile says book value $9/sh, try to be more conservative, after the write-off and buyback and acquisition, the book value should still be at least 7.5/sh. Total sale could be in the range of 9.6B/yr if you assume it's going to stay flat, the new acquisition will add 0.3B/yr in 2-3 Q. So at least $10/sh revenue. If my observation of pricing and BTB is correct, then a revenue in the range of 13-17B is not impossible. I see value here that's going to be very important in a bear market. However, I got to repeat, you have to see the next Q earnings before any decisions are made. Frank