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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (2540)	3/5/1998 11:15:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Respond to of 9980

India-The rumor about my disintegration is greatly exaggerated. Sam and all: Here is a recent analysis of India from Jane's defense weekly. [For private use only] [source:Jane's Defense Weekly] Welcome to the Sentinel Global Risk South Asia Centre - India RISK POINTERS India is a country of immense linguistic and religious diversity, with 18 distinct languages recognised by the central government. Nearly all the major religions of the world are represented in India. Given this diversity, the perennial prognosis of many political analysts after Indian independence in 1947 was that India would disintegrate and descend into anarchy. Nevertheless, on the 50th anniversary of its independence in 1997, India remains united and democratic, although its unity and democracy sometimes come under stress. Secessionist movements continue to afflict India, especially along its fringes. The insurgency in Muslim-dominated Kashmir, which began in 1989, has not yet ended. It has abated somewhat, however, following state elections held in 1996, when some 55 per cent of the electorate went to the polls. Secessionist violence in Punjab in the northwest, and Assam in the northeast, has subsided and perhaps even been resolved. Periodic ethnic violence continues in the tribal areas of the northeast. Localised Hindu-Muslim conflicts occur periodically and then tend to dissipate. Sporadic inter-caste violence occurs in some states, especially in Bihar. While the Indian population is 82 per cent Hindu, they are divided by language and caste, thus giving no group a majority. This makes it difficult for one particular group to dominate Indian politics and contributes to both stability and instability. With increasing concerns about internal security, there has been a significant growth of armed paramilitary forces, mainly under the control of the Home Ministry. The size of these forces, now over 1.5 million armed personnel, has been of some concern. These forces have often tended to be less disciplined than the regular military and are alleged to have committed many human-rights violations in disturbed areas where ethnic secessionist struggles and Hindu-Muslim communal violence have taken place. The problem is being addressed through special training and orientation of existing paramilitary forces, and the creation of two elite forces, the National Security Guards and the Rashtriya Rifles, drawn mainly from the regular armed forces. The rise of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) over the last decade has raised fears of more Hindu-Muslim conflicts at home, and increased the risk of war with Pakistan. However, BJP's electoral successes in some of the Indian states such as Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra have led to greater moderation rather than extremism, and to a decline in Hindu-Muslim conflict. The last significant Hindu-Muslim violence occurred in 1992 in the aftermath of the destruction of a 470-year mosque at Ayodhya, Uttar Pradesh, by BJP-led Hindu zealots. Pakistani military training and assistance for the secessionist Muslim insurgents in Kashmir since 1990 have raised fears of another Indo-Pakistani war. By 1997 the threat of war with Pakistan over Kashmir had receded, although the anti-Indian Muslim insurgency in the state continues at a lower level of violence. Ironically, BJP leaders have generally maintained a good rapport with Pakistani leaders. While economic liberalisation and reforms initiated in 1991 continue to be pushed by the minority United Front government (even by the communist parties which are part of this coalition), political uncertainty remains at the federal level since no party is able to muster a clear majority. The political situation generates some caution in policy-making. Thus far, this has not led to a political breakdown even if weak minority governments now appear to be the norm, and it has not affected investor confidence since all parties including the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CP-M) are committed to a liberalised and privatised free market economy. The unleashing and subsequent expansion of the private sector have not been paralleled by a similar pace in the privatisation of several gigantic public sector corporations or the development of India's infrastructure. A major effort is currently under way to develop the financial and non-financial sectors of the infrastructure.