Hi Rick, Long time for an answer but they say "better late than never," so here goes anyway. I peaked into my crystal ball to see what it said and these are my observations:
If Diablillos is bought out by Barrick, I'm not so sure they would be interested in Cerro Blanco. The reason I say this is that at the AGM Shrake was not at all encouraging in what he had to say about it. He claimed it was more a base metals play and that the market did not value them as much as gold plays, if you remember. I disagreed with him because that would belie the value of Inco, RTZ, Voisey Bay, and all of the other big companies whose fortunes were based on base metals. He left the impression that he wasn't interested in further work on the property, and for those reasons, if it were true that Cerro is a base metal deposit with some gold credits, then I doubt Barrick would be interested either. Just seems strange, because I recall the high hopes for the Cerro Blanco. We had been told that it was on the same fault line as the Oculto and the geography was similar. The rock chip and channel samples were also promising. Remember those heady days?
As for the Fantasma, Barrick would be buying a pig-in-a-poke, unless there is some drilling done by PFG, and some good results achieved. Without some idea of what's there, the only other reason I can think of them buying it, is for the reasons Shrake stated in his post on the PFG website, and I couldn't see Barrick paying a whole lot for the Fantasma property, in that event. As far as the Cateo Nunez, I understood it was just part of the package that they had to take, but that there was no real expectations of any precious metals values on the property.
I do agree with your timeframe, with some possible smaller moves in between. I don't see them doing too much, if any, drilling on La Colorada, because, again, Shrake mentioned at the meeting that there intention was to j.v. with a major, because it was too big and too expensive to drill on their own. Although I think they may do some preliminary work, if only to try and attract a major to the table, I don't think they will go it alone. I recall when there were several majors interested, but times have changed, alas.
I would sure like to know what happened to these targets I am posting below, on the Diablillos. They looked so promising earlier, and we never heard of them again. The ones I am thinking of, with their initial results are, I'm sure, still in your mind, but for those who are newer on the thread, perhaps I should submit them again, along with their values at the time. So here they are:
Laderas 420,000 tons @ 1.9g(.06 oz) gold=30,000 ozs.
Pedernales Sur 130,000 tons @ 2.1 g(.07 oz.) gold = 10,000 ozs.
Vicuna 280,000 tons@ 1.9g(.06ozs.)gold =20,000 ozs.
Corderos 130,000 tons @ 2.2g(.07 ozs.) gold =10,000 ozs.
These results were, I gather, on the gold alone. There was very little
drilling on these other deposits. Where it was stated as a gold
equivalent was only on the Oculto.
Cerro Viejo Este appears to be on the Pedernales Sur.
Cerro Bayo Este appears to be North of Oculto.
It is interesting to note once again, that at that time, there was also 4 million tons @ 5.0g(.16ozs.) The gold equivalent= 750,000 ozs. on the Oculto. The reserves were based on 1994 drill results.
I have also mentioned the other ten properties and wonder when, if ever, they will do some drilling on some of these. They, too, had been thought to have some worthwhile targets according to the CSMAT. I think it's great if they can pick up some undervalued properties, but it would be very nice to see some work done on the ones we have as well, in order to either eliminate them, or add them to the assets.
CMS has always been adamant about the fact that they were not looking to become a mining company, but rather an exploration company, because that is where the money is. For once, I agree totally. I'm sure you have noticed that once the exploration stage is over, and they plan to build a mine, the stock will become almost dormant until the actual mine starts to produce. That is after they become operational and get all the kinks out and everything is running smoothly. At that time it rises and falls on profits. The big, and fast??? profits have already been taken off the table in the exploration phase. Admittedly, this play has NOT been typical. In fact, we are back where we started from, vis-a-vis the price, when CMS and Co. came aboard the good ship PFG. Doesn't give one a very positive feeling, does it?
I agree with you that Barrick will probably make their move by this summer. What will it bring for us? I think it remains to be seen what the increase in reserves will be, and the discrepancies between the RC/DD results that you mention, Rick. As I recall, on the one release, there was mention of a 38% increase on the last drilling program, but what about the one that is ongoing now? How much will it increase the tonnage? Will they also drill some of the above mentioned targets before that, as well?
Questions, always more questions, and so few answers!
Tell you one thing though, Rick, and that is the high hopes of the past seem to have been seared out of the center of the stock. You were wise to estimate a more realistic price given the information to date. Better to estimate lower and hope for higher.:-)
Well, the old crystal ball just went dark on me, so I guess it's trying to tell me something..... GET OFF THIS POST, SHIRLEY!
Cheers
Shirley |
