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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mark Oliver who wrote (2272)3/5/1998 3:57:00 PM
From: Kurthend  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3029
 
Mark,

Here is some information from a call today too INVX. Since I am not a computer geek:) I take no responsibility for messing up the technical jargon or getting some of the information mixed up. If anybody wants to sue me then they are required to take my margin with them:)

1. re: technology that allows MR heads to be tested without first being attached to a suspension - It is my understanding that they can now test prior to bonding the MR head to the suspension. It was unclear how this would affect the total number of wires sold by INVX.
2. re: GMR technology - doesn't change the interconnect requirements. HTCH apparently believes the scalability of the TSA will suit GMR whereas INVX believes that their finer lines and spaces will best suit GMR ( I believe the INVX was talking about their 2 mil tolerances). He seemed to think that HIF is just as good as TSA and cheaper.
3. re: flip chips - they have prototypes in development and expect production volumes by end of FY98 at the latest. He seemed to indicate that they would sell the flexible interconnects prior to the end of FY98 (possibly by mid summer) but at the latest the end of FY98. I believe he stated that this would be out of the LPC facility and that they expect the LPC to grow considerably over the next 2 years (keep in mind the LPC facility only earned I believe about $18 million last FY).
4. re: HIF - They have put in place or will soon have in place new equipment which will allow HIF to be shipped in either 1 or 2 pieces. In other words this equipment will automatically bond the HIF to the suspensions prior to shipment if that is what the customer desires. This would still be cheaper than TSA. This equipment is at the LPC facility. They will have capacity for 5 million by this summer and 10 million by Jan 99, but that is the capacity not necessarily the number of orders from customers.
5. They will not have the visibility for next qtr for another couple of weeks. He mentioned "hoping" for a qtr similar to their 1st qtr 98 ending in December. I could not nail down earning or revenues for this qtr ending in Mar. Just by fishing for numbers I would expect around 30 - 32 cents a share with approximately 6 million wires sold a week. He was hesitant to give out exact figures, due to the possibility giving out erroneous information (IMO due to lawsuits). IMO INVX may be looking at EPS around $1.80 for the year (.5 + .32 + .5 + .5 = $1.80). It could be better, but it will all depend on the turnaound in the inventory levels in the next 2 qtrs which INVX or nobody else seems to know about or will admit.
6. MAXTOR buys from head manufacturers that INVX sells to so that is a positive if Maxtor gains market share. Fujitsu apparently manufactures in-house (interconnects). I believe the system is called CAPS but is more expensive. I think I heard that INVX does sell a small amount to Fujitsu.
7. Echonovex and Innomedica is basically status quo for the time being.

I believe I covered everything I can remember about the conversation and sorry if I wasn't more specific. INVX IMO will be hurting this qtr and possibly next qtr but the future I believe is bright. With that being said, they called me back (a small time investor) which says something about their concern for those who invest in their company.

Take care.

Kurt



To: Mark Oliver who wrote (2272)3/5/1998 9:33:00 PM
From: Doug (Htfd,CT)  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3029
 
One indication of accumulation is IBD's recent A/E score of "A"

95/27A as of Wednesday, 3/4, to be exact.

From October through December, it was in distribution, with ratings of "D" and "E". In January, when it hit 20, it switched to "C" and "B" and is now showing "A's" and "B's"

I don't know who is buying, but there appears to be objective evidence of a shift from distribution to accumulation.

Doug (long INVX)