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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Steve Fancy who wrote (20716)3/6/1998 8:49:00 AM
From: Serendipity  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 42771
 
Steve:

I am sorry you find my comments personal. I do respect you and everyone else on this board and have done my best not to be personal or insulting. My comments about bashing of the bulls is something I believe to be true. It is time consuming to try to cut and paste to prove it. I am not on this board to prove anyone wrong. My goal is to invest and make money. As an investor, I try to remain open minded and objective, not for pleasing those of different views, but to enhance my performance.

I can only sell ahead of problems, or not buy at all, if I listen to the negatives. I therefore welcome all negative comments, so long as offered without attacks. That is why I have said I would like Joe to stay and comment. That is why I have never
attacked anyone's views. When the price started to move up, I asked the bulls to remain humble. But it is also true that as price have moved up negative comments have become pointed and in defiance of the bulls. Bearishness is fine, in fact is good for this board and the stock, providing balance and showing we are not overbought. it is a fact that share holders of this stock are not given the respect we all should give one another. We are not in a wrestling match and beating up on each other makes us no money...

My comments about making living is something I believe in. The only reason I read this board is to make money in my investment. If I sell my position, I will not post or even read the thread any more. I don't know a person on this board personally. I take everything face value. I strongly believe what this board says or does can not impact the price of a stock such as Novell which is held by hundreds of institutions. Anyone who thinks he may hype the price of Novell, on these boards, must be a novice. I have never hyped this stock in any of my posts. What I have done, is call it as I see it, and so far the record speaks for itself.

Humility aside for the record, I picked the bottom at 7 (give or take a few pennies), I bought most of my position around 7, I did not sell at 8 or 9 (tough call it was), I expected the numbers to be "OK or Good" and they were, I have stayed with the price spike so far (great many of them beat the dust), I did not sell because of the lawsuit and it is history, Intel and the market went down and I bought a little yesterday. Is this being caught up or is it good investing. I be honest with everyone, the record has been good. But it seems that more I call them the more unpopular I am becoming.

I am not "caught up" in anything. I have posted my stop loss points here before. recently I have spent much more time and monitored the price so as not to give back profits...I have been an investor for a long time and have seen these types of price moments before. Most do not become a lasting trend. In my opinion Novell has not developed a sustainable trend yet. Although it is clearly in up trend. As a share holder I hope it does develop the trend I like, but I am not banking on it. Novell is at a crucial turning point. It is not profitable to look to far into the future, IMO. I have said here that with a turn around, it is one day at the time. At this stage I have upgraded Novell to one week at the time! However, I may sell at anytime.

Hopefully there will come a time that I do not have to spend much time with Novell and let it be a long term hold. You can see what I mean if you look at my posts on another SI board. There has not been a need to post much recently. The work was done many months ago...Subject to certain personal stop loss rules, if the fundamentals do not deteriorate, I intend to hold that stock, even through a Bear Market.

For my money, I use fundamental and technicals. Technicals and fundamentals have been supporting one another in Novell. The past of Novell, which you and others on this board know better then I, is not relevant anymore. Price drop has washed those sins. It always does. There is a New CEO and even the Bears have not questioned his integrity.

Stellar earnings report, for this writer is one that surprises to the upside. Novell beat estimates by 100% and price has responded. That is enough for now...reduced revenue is not important in the early stages of a turn around. The market seems to be taking the same view or else the price would NOT go up...However, once the price adjusts to these new numbers, it will then look forward and Novell must produce again... I can NOT project sales or earnings, as some Bears are demanding from Bulls? Some capable and honest analyst may be able to, if management helps... I am an average investor. I do study the numbers and pay good subscription money for analyst's reports.

I have owned all sorts of companies whose markets or products and plans I did not fully understood.. IMO, it is impossible and unnecessary to know it all. For my money, investment is a personal art. All the FA and TA in the world will not replace the FEEL of it:

Do I really trust what the CEO is saying? Do I trust my inner voices about this company? Have I had prior experience with this type of investment? What is the risk reward here? What does the chart look like and what TYPE is it? How is the industry? What is the risk/reward in this very dangerous market? Remembering I will be wrong at times.

Such personal dialogue helps me more than knowing all about a product or a certain VP in the company. Trust no one but yourself is my motto. I do not believe we invest in a company at all. What we do is INVEST IN OUR JUDGEMNT of a company and that is all. knowing I can never know enough, I use technicals to get help, Even then, it falls short some times.

Finally, you accuse me, and I quote;

<<....starting to spread data you're making up.>>

What data Steve? In which post of mine? When and where? If you have mistaken this writer for some else that is fine, there are too many posts to read. But if not, please post here for everyone to read about what I have made up...

Like you said I do not wish to turn this into a fight. It just wastes everyone's time and accomplishes nothing...Lawyers do it but they get paid for it. Good investors ought no to. But I do request your helping me with the above questions.

Good investing,

Seren



To: Steve Fancy who wrote (20716)3/9/1998 10:12:00 PM
From: Scott C. Lemon  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42771
 
Hello Steve,

I couldn't sit back and watch this ... I get back to town and here you go making assumptions again:

> Seren, I found your post to Toy Soldier (Scott Lemon?)regarding
> your summary of the likes of myself and this board disappointing
> and insulting.

Please ... give me a break. By now I would hope that you know I post what I think. I have no reason to try and hide anything I have to say. Many people choose to use handles for various reasons ... but not me. You have full access to my e-mail address ... ask me!

P.S. And on the subject of handles vs. real names ... Jim McCormack really seemed to have a problem with this naming stuff (#20728) ... it's almost amusing to watch people frustrated with the loss of "real" names ... but then what is a "real" name? And what exactly does it represent? Virtual Reality *is* upon us ... and virtual identities are coming quickly ... go check out lpwa.com ... it's Lucent's playground that will allow all of us to create virtual identities. (I love that stock ... sold half my LU at $108.25 ...and I'll buy again after the split ... ;-)

P.P.S. Three days of briefings with 12+ major accounts in Canada ... all of them agreed on one thing: Not one of them will install NT v5.x until well into the year 2000! So I'm not worried about the "impact of NT v5.x in existing accounts ... and Java and NCs were strong ...

Thanx!

Scott C. Lemon