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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MrCash who wrote (3799)	3/5/1998 3:19:00 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 42834

Besides, there is enough stuff to argue about re: Brinker anyway. Dipy.

To: MrCash who wrote (3799)	3/6/1998 2:41:00 PM
From: MrCash	Respond to of 42834

Back to interesting topics.... I just read a James Cramer article saying that M1, trade deficit and jobs numbers all don't matter anymore and what really matters is pricing power as evidenced by todays markets (both stock and bonds) going up even with strong jobs numbers. I wonder if Brinker's model has a "pricing power" variable? What I wonder is how would one measure pricing power? Maybe the Consumer and Producer Price Index core rates? Clearly, low inflation is key to higher p/e multiples but what variables do we look for when predicting the bull changing to a bear? I like Bob's four main ones (sentiment, valuation, money supply and inflation), but are there others to look at too? (or did I remember incorrectly?) My guess is "real cost of money" should be there (difference between inflation and 30 yr bond) as well as percentage of cash in mutual fund managers portfolios (sort of a derivative of sentiment) and probably money flowing into mutual stock funds, GDP, exports, and others. Any other ideas? I'll feel much more comfortable switching out of the market when DaBrink gives the sell signal IF I have a good understanding of the underlying principals for the changed signal. Sure doesn't hurt to be ready..... regards Kirk pit