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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rio Jangada who wrote (32444)	3/5/1998 2:51:00 PM
From: Fangorn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

RJ, My guess for Dell's earnings warning....March 15, 2010

To: Rio Jangada who wrote (32444)	3/5/1998 2:55:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

re: <<That and a lowering of the average selling price and stabilizing component prices will further hurt DELL, which in case people haven't noticed has been slowing considerably in its rate of earnings growth.>> You are right on all accounts but one. Component pricing is now falling at a 30% rate. That is up from the more normal 15% rate. This is tricky because at 15% it is good, at 20% it is better, but at some point above average it become a mega negative. Negative because it means that there is an over supply or lack of demand situation. According to INTC, it is a lack of demand. Jim

To: Rio Jangada who wrote (32444)	3/5/1998 3:13:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Rio, you opined "the industry-wide move to BTO, internet sales, and quicker turn-arounds has been happening for some time now. Does anyone really believe that it would all-of-a-sudden cause constipation at Intel." Of course it would! As companies move towards JIT manufacturing they run their inventories down. It's a matter of simple mathematics. Warehouses that used to be filled with inventory purchased in anticipation of sales are emptying because at least temporarily inventoried items are being used at a faster rate then they are being replaced -- hence a slow-down in sales by the hardware manufacturers. If I'm correct we will see similar warnings from other hardware manufacturers. Regards, Paul