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Gold/Mining/Energy : Epic EAS.v (formerly Epic ERB.v and Safari SIR.v) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (1596)	3/5/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Respond to of 3335

*OFF TOPIC to Chip and CLK* As background it is worth remembering that not all the goals associated with a common currency are related to improving European competitiveness. There are strong proponents who have other agendas. From its earliest days one of the major goals of European economic integration has been to tie Germany's interests to Western Europe and constrain expansionist impulses. As recently as two years ago even Kohl was openly discussing this. There are also people who strongly support the currency union as a mechanism for creating a larger economic entity that could maintain the elaborate European social welfare system in the face of global free market pressures that have been making these programs untenable. Not everyone in Europe is focussed on strict market competitiveness. I have doubts as to whether the Europeans will opt for any commodity linking without being forced to by a crisis. Also without Britain being part of the Euro, the currency will dominated by Continental econonmic theory. The French in particular have never been totally comfortable with market mechanisms and believe more in economic management by 'elites'. It is often a lot of fun to goad them into a debate on the competing views just to get them to start complaing about free market theory being an Anglo-Saxon plot. (I have had these arguments) I am currently favorably disposed to US treasuries simply on a flow of funds analysis. If you look at US funding needs this year and coupon payments on existing debt, the treasury market has a lot of investment capital to recycle. About $200 billion by my estimate starting in April. I am not a gold bear or bull. However I do feel it overshot on the downside based on to much speculation re central bank sales and is likely to rebound to @350. Henry