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Biotech / Medical : Trinity Biotech (TRIBY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: AgAuUSA who wrote (8394)3/5/1998 5:14:00 PM
From: Scott H. Davis  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14328
 
Talked with Brendan K. Farrell this afternoon. Positive, informative conversation. Before I do details tho, I'm going to eat some humble pie 1st. I bit on rumors & conjecture, posting before I gave the company a chance to comment. No bueno. Now to details. NOTE: Brendan's comments appear as my impression - I did not record & write slowly, so they are not verbatum.

1. BKF did not have time to go into full detail on additional shares, but committed to get back with me on that. Did say warrents and options beining exersized played a part (please, no comments on options until I get the detail & clarify if needed)

2. I asked about how comfortable he was with estimate for qtr1 & FY98 (.15). He was very clearly not comfortable with that estimate.
Brendan did say they were committed to growing revenues and EPS agressively, and suggested a 30% growth rate.

Cup half full/empty time. Thats way less than 114% (.07 97, .15 98 analyst estimate), but really, 30% annual growth built on a healthy foundation is pretty good.

3. I asked how far along the curve TRIBY was in absorbing the acquisitions. He said pretty far, but does not expect to see a big effect on the bottom line until late 2nd qtr, and then rest of year.

4. I asked about the large red flags that lept off the page in the earnings report that were not commented on.

A. Current assets, but no current laibilities (cant do a current ratio without, which a lot of US investors look at)

B. the huge increase in liabilities & huge decrease in
shareholder equity.

C. If there was a material adverse effect of foreign currency valuations, why not spelled out?

Brendan responded by saying their CFO prefers to keep things out of the statement that are difficult to answer briefly, and instead visit those issues in the conference call. I responded by saying that that was Ok for some current investors, but a potential investor reading the statement is going to see the negatives in the report, and if not clarified, assume serious negative things & never bother to take part in a conference call. Brendan responded by saying essentially good point & that thay'll consider commenting in the future.

Note to Brendan if you read this. For better or worse, many US investors have an expectation of much more full disclosure. When negative items are not adequately explained or even discussed at all, we presume either intentional hiding at worst, and management that insensitive to its investors at best. Either conclusion may be right or mistaken, but you can be assured that those will be the prevailing reactions. So please, will Trinity Biotechnology management keep this in mind when you structure future releases. Same dynamic applied when your proxies went out too late to be returned. The impression again was either intentional in order to disenfranchise US investors, or lack of comcern.

Enough for now. Hope this is helpfull. The conversation was certainly helpfull to me. Thanks! Scott



To: AgAuUSA who wrote (8394)3/5/1998 5:33:00 PM
From: Steve Stuart  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14328
 
Greg,

Your calculations differ from mine:

$6M book value / 19.6M shares = $.31 book value per share

600k SLF shares x $9 / 19.6M TRIBY shares = $.28 per share SLF valuation

This leaves a full $1.35 of TRIBY's share price as an unsecured premium. Earnings of $.10 next year would represent a 7.5% return on this premium -- not far from a typical value.

-Steve Stuart