To: Doo who wrote (2300 ) 3/5/1998 6:52:00 PM From: Joseph J. Valenzuela Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 7054
Regarding the ability of on-line threads to move stocks, I'm skeptical. I think the whole supposition that Mr. Pink is spearheading a "bear raid" on ACRT is absurd. Every single stock thread that I have follow has the "Mr. Pink"-type figure. Gloriously bearish. (Not necessarily a short-seller on the stock, just bearish.) A little narcissistic. And damn persistent. Usually those long on the stock hold no punches back trying to hold the brother down. Then it turns into a pissing match. And it all snowballs from there. Whether or not there are 4 or 40 million lurkers, what makes people think that these lurkers will all behave as one? Even so, why would they all collectively decide to manipulate ACRT? Although I haven't counted and examined each post on this thread, I have to say that the bulls outnumber the bears by at least a 2 to 1 margin (and I think I'm being conservative here). If these threads are so influential, then why is the stock under intense distribution?? Can we apply some sort of sociological formula that lends higher "weight" and influence of bearish posts on the lurker? This all assumes that the lurkers don't do their due diligence. ACRT is at $11 because that's where the market values ACRT. Blow-out earnings, current quarterly EPS growth, debt/equity ratios, P/E ratios don't move stocks. Supply and demand directly affects share price. If a stock is growing 30% annually, yet trading at a P/E of 15, should this "obviously" undervalued stock suddenly double in price? If no one wants to buy the stock, for whatever reasons, then it will remain "undervalued" whether or not it "deserves" to be. Supply and demand. Why is ACRT 60%+ off its 52-week high? People have issues with the viability of the company/stock. The jury is still out whether ACRT is for real or not. Sure, you can throw all these statistics at me why ACRT is the REAL DEAL, etc. etc. and I just may agree with you. But the market has valued it at $11, and there is nothing you or I can do about it. I'll give another example (please spare me the apples-to-oranges reply again). THQI was trading around $6 at this time last year. All the people on the MF and SI threads were furious. "Those damn market-makers!" "Somebody is manipulating this stock!" However, it was trading at $6 for a reason--the company hadn't proven to the market that it was for real. Many who had done their DD believed so, but the market still wasn't ready. Then Q1 earnings were released. Still nothing. Q2 earnings were released. Q3 earning were released. ("Hey, maybe this company IS for real," the market thought.) Finally, Q4 earnings are released. THQI is sitting at $28. It was not one huge jump, but with each earnings release, the market began to "believe" more and more. It's all supply and demand folks. Sure, $6 to $28 is a great return. However, at $6, THQI was a "story stock," a POTENTIAL "turnaround play." That's how the market valued it. And market likes THQI much better at $28 than at $6. (Wouldn't that have been a nice ride?) The market isn't ready for ACRT. Maybe it never will be. Personally, I'm a believer in ACRT, but right now it's more an act of faith. Mr. Pink, et al. have brought to the table legitimate concerns regarding ACRT. If the bears were blowing nonsensical hot air, then ACRT would be at $30 today, would it? ;) IF these concerns are addressed by management in a satisfactory manner, then the market will value ACRT accordingly. Do you think these issues brought up by Mr. Pink are meaningless? Then you should thank him for getting the word out. Why THANK Mr. Pink? Well, if Mr. Pink is indeed blowing smoke, then he just presented you with an opportunity to buy ACRT at a 60%+ discount off its 52-week high. If you long are all so sure about the profit potential of TADs, etc., then jump in now and ride the tide. BECAUSE, if you are right, by the time the MARKET agrees with you, you'll be rich, because in the market's eyes, you took a chance. Best regards, Joe Valenzuela