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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scott H. Roberts who wrote (1636)	3/6/1998 9:41:00 AM
From: seth thomas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3033

I agree with what you said - I wouldn't be so worried about the structure of the deal if I had SCOP stock, and the CFO concern is just a red herring. The real fear I would have is that SEBL stock could take a dive. It's already dropped around 10 pts - that means that the buyout price dropped from around 22/share to around 19/share. I have seen a number of deals blow up, because the acquiring stock dropped too much - or, shortly after the deal is consumated, the stock drops for whatever reason. the IFMX/Illustra deal is a great example and is especially dramatic - Initially Illustra was being bought for around $400 MM - shortly after the consumation, IFMX tanked, and it was worth $80 MM. It was too late for the Illustra shareholders - they already had IFMX in their hands. I doubt SEBL will drop from 63 to 30, but it could go to 40 or 45 - and then SCOP would have been worth around 14 - 16; not very interesting for long suffering SCOP holders. I wonder if there is a collar on the deal (i.e. a minimum price below which if the stock falls the deal is automatically off). Some deals also have an upper end collar - if SEBL stock goes too high, the number of shares, or the price/share changes (i.e. currently its .36/share - could be recalculated at .28 or something like that).