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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockycd who wrote (17200)	3/5/1998 9:49:00 PM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Respond to of 70976

CD In my opinion, an IBM warning is likely. They've got the same channel inventory problem as everybody else in the PC and Server business, maybe worse. Obviously, they are much more diversified than CPQ, so the impact is smaller, but it's still there. And if Intel is having problems due to channel inventory, then you can bet other component makers are having similar problems. SEG, WDC, CREAF and DIMD could be big casualties, athough DIMD could be saved somewhat by the fact that they do much of their OEM business with DELL who are the only boxmaker not experiencing trouble right now. Others to be hit could include ADPT (SCSI), CY and IDTI (SRAM). MU is likely to be complete toast. They've been sitting on a lot of highly-valued inventory which they'd be selling at a loss in today's market, and hoping for a price recovery which is appearing less likely to arrive. They are looking like a great short. mg