Eric: on talk, just a quote at 2 PM shows about average volume
(around 1 million shares), including 28 large blocks traded, this
may indicate institutional accumulation. The stock has 5 strong
buys out of 5 analysts following it. Ten largest institutional
holding hold over 38% of the outstanding shares with fido leading the
pack:
Top Ten Institutional Shareholders
(* denotes new position) Rank Institution Shares Held Previous Net Chng. % Chng. % Owned Last Report
1 Fidelity Management & Research Co. 8,500,050 7,916,700 +583,350 +7.4% 12.7% 12/31/97
2 Massachusetts Financial Services Co. 4,082,600 3,984,900 +97,700 +2.5% 6.1% 09/30/97
3 Putnam Investment Management 3,679,100 7,830,432 -4,151,332 -53.0% 5.5% 12/31/97
4 Chancellor LGT Asset Management, Inc 2,178,000 2,178,400 -400 -0.0% 3.3% 12/31/97
5 Essex Investment Management Co. Inc. * 1,818,600 0 +1,818,600 -- 2.7% 09/30/97
6 Provident Investment Counsel Inc. 1,702,380 1,847,480 -145,100 -7.9% 2.6% 12/31/97
7 Dresdner RCM Global Investors Corp. 1,370,500 1,404,000 -33,500 -2.4% 2.1% 12/31/97
8 Gardner Lewis Asset Management, Inc. * 844,600 0 +844,600 -- 1.3% 12/31/97
9 Feirstein Capital Management 750,000 50,000 +700,000 +1,400.0% 1.1% 09/30/97
10 PNC Bank, N.A. (Invt. Mgmt.) 741,447 1,438,947 -697,500 -48.5% 1.1% 12/31/97
Top Ten Totals: 25,667,277 26,650,859 -983,582 -3.7% 38.4%
Insider trading. Not insignificant but nothing I found alarming.
Most recent 144 from 12/97 for a good chunk:
TEL-SAVE HOLDINGS Filed by Title Action Shares Price Trans. Date Report Date Form
ALOYSIUS T LAWN SECRETARY Sell 50,000 $88 11/28/97 12/16/97 4
GEORGE P FARLEY CFO TREASURER AND DIRECTOR Buy 200,000 $4 11/03/97 12/16/97 4
GARY MCCUNA PRESIDENT TEL SAVE HOLDINGS INC Sell 383,100 $21 12/05/97 144
JOSEPH A SCHENK CFO TEL-SAVE HOLDINGS INC Sell 79,600 $24 10/11/97 144
ALOYSIUS T LAWN IV COUNSEL Sell 65,670 $24 10/11/97 144
KEVIN KELLY OFFICER Sell 21,890 $25 10/11/97 144
MARY KENNON OFFICER Sell 15,880 $25 10/11/97 144
EMANUEL DEMATO DIRECTOR AND Sell 98,922 $25 10/11/97 144
A quick look at general financial charts in the WSJ shows a nice
upward trend in revenues and earnings, except in the recent quarters.
Financial ratios look terrible compared to the industry. Presumably
this could be explained by assuming they are the nect MCI.
(so far what I see does not tell me this is a clear short. It looks
they blame the AOL deal for the recent weak results).
interactive.wsj.com
let's switch to the SEC fillings: Eric sorry read. through the
stuff. They have not only paid 100 million to AOL but also are given
them significant amounts of stock warrants which are subject to TALK
reaching certain customer number goals. They will also suffer
dilition from a convetible issued to cover the cost of th AOL deal.
The bottom line is that without the AOL deal this company was a
nicely growing, profitable company offering business long distance
service. They are trying to penetrate the consumer market placing a
huge bet behind AOL. Will they be successful, at this point I am not
ready to bet against them. Even if I were right and the AOL was a
bit blunder I think I would have to take a great deal of pain and
suffering while I wait. My advice wait until there are some clear
signs of the AOL deal being a big mistake. Until then it is a wild
guess. Remeber MCI look even worse than these guys in their early
days, TALKS balance sheet looks much cleaner and stronger. Eric,
please, I am beging you don't short this puppy now
Pancho |
