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Technology Stocks : VISIO Corp (VSIO): Big ISO 9000 Play -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn Norman who wrote (111)	3/5/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: Adam Nash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 522

Hi Glenn - While I certainly agree that anything about a P/E of 35-40 is too high, my thinking is that Visio's current price volatility reflects this. If you take last quarters earnings, multiply by 4, you get $1.02. Of course, this is very conservative analysis, because most quarters Visio's earnings increase. However, I'm using it so that the argument seems reasonable. To me, at 36 (my recent additional buy), Visio is priced at about a 35 P/E. That is steep. But how many companies grew their revenue by 97% last year? Given the stage Visio is at with their market, I also believe there is considerable growth ahead. Good solid growth, both from current and future additional revenue streams. I can honestly see Visio rivaling Adobe in revenues based on their CEO's business model. Visio's target is much broader-based than Adobe, and I think everything they do reaks of their goal: To make Visio products the standard for business drawing. Anyway, given the volatility of the stock, I think it is possible to make money going short, and quickly covering. You could also make money buying on dips and selling on the almost commonplace, 1 day, 10% gains. I'm not going to try though. My market timing is limited to waiting for a dip to invest money I've already decided will go to Visio. In Jan, when the stock shot to 44ish, I couldn't take the heat, and I sold 1/2 my stake. There is a limit to how high valuation I can tolerate with that much money. Fortunately, it did drop again, hence my recent buy at 36. After further analysis though, if it soars again to 40s, I won't sell. I think the LT prospects are very very strong, and I can stomach the volatility (I think :) I will obviously reevaluate if Visio's growth slows on a seemingly more permanent basis. For example, if MS for some bizarre reason decided to go head to head and attach their product to Office, that would be "a bad thing". However, given their proximity, MS failed acquisition of Intuit, MS & the DOJ, and Visio's very compelling status as the only company that can implement MS's latest tech (besides MS), I think it's unlikely.

To: Glenn Norman who wrote (111)	7/23/1998 11:17:00 PM
From: put2rich	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 522

Yo_Glenn, Did you do it or missed the boat? You see I almost did it but w/ your warning. Any way what the news? Thanks

To: Glenn Norman who wrote (111)	7/24/1998 6:52:00 PM
From: Adam Nash	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 522

Hi Norman, Well, that's the funny thing. You say that anything above a P/E of 35-40 is too high. But, in truth, this stock now trades at about a PE of 30! Just doing run-rate earnings (ie, take the last quarter x 4) you get $1.24 a share. 30x is already 37.2. 35x is 43.4. 40x is 49.6. So, in my view, anything between 43 and 50 is fair game for now, below is cheap (acquire more shares). I'm just curious why the drop on the strong earnings announcement. I'm just surprised - I think Visio is on pace to be bigger than Adobe. They are already closing on the $200M mark for revenue run-rate.