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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jmac who wrote (49824)	3/6/1998 12:31:00 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Jmac, Holding for tax purposes is bad news...Sorry about your bad luck. Write your Congressman about a flat tax. Jim

To: jmac who wrote (49824)	3/6/1998 1:39:00 AM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Jmac, > If you believe that the stock is going down to the low 60s, > that's 15 points and paying taxes is preferred to losing > another 15 points. The same holds true, if not more so, if you > believe the stock is going down into the 40s. If you really > believe that, then you ought to sell--taxes and timing aside. I disagree. My belief is that we may see lower, but that the drop will be short-lived, and that the stock will be back. So the question becomes: "Do I have something better to do with the money in the meantime, and do I have confidence in my ability to get back in quickly enough once it starts to move?" The answer to me is that there are too many variables there to feel good about doing that. I DON'T claim to know how far it might fall, although the 60s seems like a possible level. I don't know how long it might stay there if it does fall. I don't have confidence that any other stocks I might put the money into would do any better given the general state of overvaluation in the market. And prior experience teaches me that I'll probably be on vacation, or too busy to notice, or have my cash tied up elsewhere next time it suddenly shoots up 20 points in 3 days. Occasionally I'll see a sitation in Intel (or something else) which is so glaringly out of whack that I'll go for the short term trade, usually with options and with devastatingly good results. Managed that in the rise after the Pentium debacle, in the crash that next year, and in last year's sudden climb. I missed this one, but had the overall market hedged with OEX puts which has worked out OK. Through it all I've held the core Intel position (along with others) and just added or decreased hedging and leverage to match my assesment of the risk. It's worked for me. Were you going to sell the stock and pour it ALL into the LEAP? That's a huge increase in leverage and risk. Or did you plan on just buying a leap position to give you the same upside exposure for a smaller investment? It seems like an unusual move. mg