To: Michael F. Donadio who wrote (8063 ) 3/6/1998 1:28:00 PM From: uu Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 64865
Michael: > As much as I would like to invest in MS, this type of thing just repels > me. Please explain to me how to view this with greater wisdom and > recognize that only money is important. Here is my thoughts on this (purely as an investor). I watched the senate hearing a couple of nights ago on cspan from the beginning to the end and found it very interesting. While Mr. McNealy and NSCP's CEO presented their case very well with regard to fair competition in a none monopolistic environment, Bill Gates also did a very good presentation of his thoughts. Now lets examine what does monopoly mean? To me monopoly means that an entity forces its will on the masses. The question now should be Is it Microsoft that forcing its will on the masses, or is it the mass that is willing to accept Microsoft's will ?! As we all know 90%+ (if not 100%!!) of PC OS market belongs to Microsoft. But why? Is it because Microsoft Windows OS is a superior product than anything else? In other words, is it because Microsoft Windows OS has the best design, performance and implementation? For one thing Windows, in my opinion, is a cheap copy of Xerox's UI that was desgined back in the 70's and then combined with Apple's best UI features designed in the early 80's. Therefore Windows is not a unique product, and certainly it is not *the best* product either. If you have ever worked with IBM's OS/2 you will find a much better PC operating system (of course IMHO). So why is it that Microsoft owns 90%+ of the market? To answer, lets ask the following question: When you go to buy a PC (from for example Comp USA) do you ask the sales person: Excuse me, could you make sure that IBM's OS/2 is installed on the PC?, or do you ask the sales person: Excuse me, but could you make sure to instal the latest version of UNIX for PC on this machine? Most likely your answer to both these questions is a straight and definite NO ! But why?! Is it not because that it is your will not to use anything else but Microsoft Windows? But why? Is it because Windows is something that you are most familiar with and find it easy and friendly enough to statisfy most (if not all) of your computing needs? Now lets ask the following: Why is it that you find Windows an easy and friendly OS to use? And the answer is because most have not seen anything else! Now lets ask why? And, in my humble opinion, it is because of how masses are trained to think nothing but Windows! And you may ask who is doing this? and I say: It is not Microsoft, but rather the mass itself being cornered by itself with the help of PC vendors to be trained nothing but Windows! I submit that it is not Microsoft that is monopolizing the market, but rather it is the market that is monopolizing itself and is giving the power to Microsoft to do so! Why? Well, Can you convince any PC vendor (e.g. DELL, CPQ, GateWay, joe's PC shop, etc.) to put a different operating system on their PCs by default other than Microsoft Windows (for example IBM's OS/2, or Linuex, or Macintosh, or Joe's OS or whatever)? And if you can convince them to do so then you will end to the so called Microsoft monopoly! But you know why you can not convince them to do so, because you and I are not "willing" to try anything else! It is that simple! In the final analysis it is the consumers that drive the market (both on a mass scale as well as at corporate level). On the mass scale people like you and I are not willing to try any other OS for PCs other than that of Microsoft's (mainly because we are just too used to it), and on a corporate level? well... lets examine that! Lets take Oracle. It is the second largest software company after Microsoft and considers Microsoft its number 1 enemy (to say it bluntly)! But then even Oracle is building all its software products targeted mainly for Microsoft operating systems (despite the fact that the entire company is now 100% behind the Network Computing Architecture via Java, NCs and servers)! So you see it is not Microsoft that is forcing its will on "everyone" , it is "everyone" who is giving the Microsoft the power to monopolize them! And certainly you can not blame Microsoft for taking the full advantage of that, can you? As an investor you should always go with the investment tool that you believe would make your wealth grow. Microsoft, in my view, will be perhaps one of the best tools for this purpose so long as the market is willing to be monopolized by them! Wether it is the traditional WinTel fat client computing model (e.g. expensive fancy PCs, or the new sub $1000 PCs), or it is strictly Sun's thin client/server centric computing model (via NCs, servers and Java) Microsoft willl make huge money. For one thing regardless of wether it is a fancy expensive Intel Pentium PC or a sheap $700 AMD K6 machine, Microsoft will get its appx. $80-$90 license for Windows OS. And if it is Sun's thin client/server centric model that is prevailing, Microsoft will make huge profits via its NT server that would best fit in the middle tier in such a computing architecture. In short invest in a company that makes you money, not because you are in love with that company (or for that matter not investing in it because you have hostile feelings toward it). Although having said that I have to admit I personally will never ever under any condition invest in a company such as philip Morris (MO). But I am sure even those who seem to hate Microsoft (which is really illogical to me and do not understand why) agree with me that Microsoft is not MO! Meanwhile, the market seems to have a nice bounce back today (as irrational as it is in my opinion of course) which gives the opportunity (for me anyway) to sell into the rally and take more profit and build up more on my cash position (and I was hoping today would be a good day to do a little shopping rather than selling more stuff)! Regards, Addi Jamshidi