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Technology Stocks : INDONESIA'S PT TELECOM(TLK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tony van Werkhooven who wrote (441)	3/6/1998 12:04:00 PM
From: Susan Saline	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 947

It's dangerous to short TLK here (chartest view) The support is very strong at 8 Sue

To: Tony van Werkhooven who wrote (441)	3/9/1998 12:03:00 PM
From: tom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 947

Very good question on the upside risks in Indo. Although I am bearish on Indo I am aware that everyone in the world knows that Indo is a basket case and their is a substantial risk of the market being surprised on the upside. This positive surprise potential could come from various sources: - A currency board fixed at 5000 to the US$ together with a reasonable plan to sort out the banking system would be taken positively (initially at least) but it would require about US$20bn in extra cash from the IMF. Suharto et cronies are very pro-this option and every other world leader is very anti-it. - Revolution with Suharto ousted could be positive in that it would cure Indo of one of its major problems. - They could try the unfashionable route of actually doing what the IMF tells them too. It worked for Thailand and Korea! I think that if you short the currency your downside is 5000 max (and 10,000 if they don't put in a currency board) and the upside is infinity!! I think the upside to TLK is US$12 (currency at 5000 and local stock at 3000). This is very, very generous and I would be amazed to see the stock north of US$10. I think the downside is US$1-2.