INSTANT VIEW - U.S. Feb payrolls rise 310,000
NEW YORK, Mar 6 (Reuters) - Following are comments from U.S. economists after the Labor Department reported non-farm payrolls rose 310,000 in February, compared to a revised 375,000 January rise.
The February unemployment rate was 4.6 percent, following a 4.7 percent rate in January.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a jobless rate of 4.6 percent and a payrolls increase of 247,000 in the month.
WAYNE AYERS, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BANK OF BOSTON: ''This was a relatively strong number, no sign the economy is softening any time soon when you look at these numbers.''
HARVINDER KALIRAI, NORTH AMERICAN ECONOMIST, I.D.E.A. INC.-- ''Strong February earnings were the big factor. (Average hourly earnings rose eight cents to $12.60 from $12.52 in January.) The 310,000 payroll jobs growth was virtually on (our) expectations. Overall, it's a very strong number. We'll have steady monetary policy as far as things go right now. We have to wait to see how the Asia problems affect the U.S. economy. But certainly there are no expectations for easing.''
MITCH STAPLEY, DIRECTOR OF TAXABLE FIXED INCOME, KENT FUNDS: ''This really continues the concerns we've seen in the first two months of the year that the economy is doing better than we would have expected as we closed 1997. There are some really strong signs of employment growth. Investors are going to want to see more signs of weakness in the economy before they become strong buyers in Treasuries or corporate bonds.''
CARY LEAHEY, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, HIGH FREQUENCY ECONOMICS:
''It's an ugly report for the bond market. You have strength in the headline payroll (figure). You have the workweek up a tenth, so it's very, very high. And you had a big gain in earnings. It suggests that the GDP growth rate could be four percent for the first quarter.
''Bonds are taking it pretty well right now. I guess they have just, in the past week, been setting themselves up for a strong report, and they got it.
''The Fed has said that (policy makers) are waiting for the storm clouds from Asia, so the market should not think the Fed is going to change policy anytime soon. The market has priced in one ease, so (it) may start to take that out. You could see the two-year (note) back up 5.90 (percent). It doesn't mean the Fed's going to do anything, it just means the market got too aggressive about a Fed ease.''
CAROL STONE, DIRECTOR, DEPUTY CHIEF ECONOMIST, NOMURA SECURITIES INTERNATIONAL, INC.
The report ''shows a continued, firm growth pattern. We are intrigued that earnings data are overstated due to faulty seasonal factors. We are hopeful they will clarify that.
''The economy is moving at a pretty good clip in the first quarter.''
SUZANNE RIZZO, DOMESTIC ECONOMIST, MFR INC: ''It's a strong number, telling us the economy is growing. The Fed is still on hold, for probably at least another two months. If the payrolls number keeps on going like this, eventually there will be tightening.
''There was a strong increase in earning that seems to be a little upsetting. (The market) was doing a lot of backing up before the numbers, so perhaps an above-consensus report had already been factored in.''
DAVID JONES, CHIEF ECONOMIST, AUBREY G. LANSTON AND CO INC: ''Stonger than expected 310,000 and the revision -- it was not a lot but it was at least upward in the previous month.
''It does look like it's at least partly still a seasonal story of a milder than normal winter in many regions of the country. Those construction jobs were up again, 41,000 after three consecutive strong months in November, December and January. And of course manufacturing was down a little bit.
''If you take the number in general, and look at average hourly earnings up 0.6 percent, it underscores a strong domestic economy at the beginning of this year.
''I think the surprise early in this year has been how strong job growth has been and how strong domestic demand has been, particularly in sectors protected from Asia, such as housing activity and construction, reflects that reality.
''We still may end it on a weaker note once we see profit declines and stock market declines reflecting eventually some drag from Asia.''
DAVID KELLY, SENIOR ECONOMIST, PRIMARK DECISION ECONOMICS: ''The big number in this report is the 0.6 percent increase in average hourly earnings, up eight cents, now up 4.1 percent year-over-year. That is the number the bond market will be scared of here, because it does show that workers ... are able to demand higher wages.''
GREG JONES, CHIEF ECONOMIST, BRIEFING.COM: ''Looks like a very strong report. It's one of those across-the-board deals here. We've got payrolls stronger than expected, unemployment down, hourly earnings up more than expected, and the workweek was a tad higher than we expected.
''The only offset to any of that was manufacturing workweek and overtime hours, which were both down.
''It's true that it's too early to expect Asia to be hitting the unemployment numbers. So the fact that we didn't see any slowing due to Asia is not surprising. The thing that is surprising is that nobody, forget Asia ever happened, nobody expected this kind of strength in employment going into 1998, in the first two months.''
''Even outside Asia, people have expected a slowdown in early 1998. Clearly they're wrong in that point. The economy, if anything, has been accelerating through the past year, and that has continued right into 1998.
''The fact that Asia now impacts the economy in the coming months, it's going to do it from a faster pace of growth. It just means that means that Asia has to do that much more in terms of slowing the economy to prevent Fed tightening ultimately.''
''The Fed has clearly told us they're not going to do anything over the next couple of months ... Greenspan has set the stage for a steady policy through the first the half of the year. But what this report does is clearly increase the risks that they ultimately will have to tighten. That's something that's a risk in second half of the year.'' |
