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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bargain Hunter who wrote (2864)	3/6/1998 5:04:00 PM
From: Peter Church	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

******************WIND INDEX (1 - 1300) Plus (2284 - 2864)************************* Here is an updated index to the WIND thread. Each subject lists the most relevant post numbers. There is some overlap in the categories, so search around. The posts under Fundamental Analysis are a good introduction to WIND's business. The posts with a * are especially noteworthy and posts with a TA refer to the Technical Analysis thread. ********************************************************************************* Quotes for the day: "We remain pretty ebullient about the prospects of our market and our growth in it. ....The embedded applications that we built our strength from, and that the market continues to grow in, are applications that require hard real time microsecond type of latencies and very small footprints. CE clearly isn't there.... CE is between hand held and PC's. Windows is a Microsoft view of the world. Most of the people we talk to aren't looking for that kind of view of the world." Ron Abelmann 2/27/98 Conference Call ********************************************************************************* Humor 864, 898, Applications 101, 102, 103, 243, 244, 311, 346, 386, 474, 834, 852, 2294, 2390, 2575, 2594, Automobiles 101, 311, 2580, 84TA, 834, 838, 845, 846, 911, 1028, 1030, 1047, 2629, Telecommunications, Networking 148, 189, 455, 603, 607, 613, 644, 834, 1285, 2481, 2497, 2498, 2499, 2512, 2583, 2604, 84TA, 2615, 2715, 114TA, QCOM 746, 754, 777, TV, Set top boxes, Cable modems 225, 300,834, 1206, 1263, 2649, 2650, 2671, 2715, 1278, 1285, 1288, Debit Cards, Vending Machines 834, 2389 Competition 20, 28, 29, 30, 31, 43, 51, 90, 91, 96, 101, 105, 114, 125, 128, 111, 116, 136, 186, , 218, 242, 318, 317, 338, 342, 611, 648, 650, 655, 656, 658, 661, 663, 664, 667, 668, 670, 712, 748, 776, 778, 1187, 1204, 2284, 2336, 2338, 2340, 2337, 2344, 2379, 2388, 2382, 2447, 2647, MWAR 28, 31, 114, 225, 261, 300, 310, 338, 342, 418, 426, 453, 458, 687, 820, 842, 843, 852, 1024, 2595, 2658, 2697, 2715, INTS 318, 317, 338, 342, 347, 418,426, 592, 593, 2447, 687, 699, 717, 843, 852, 1024, 1040, 1042, 1050, 1192, 1195, 1200, 1201, 1225, 2554, 2556, 2557, 2631, 2632, 2634, Radisys 186, 304, 314, 1138, 1153, 1180, 2526, 2529, 2535, EID's 112, 124, 870, 1134, 2308, 2346, 2769, I20 4, 22, 106, 107, 131, 206, , 249, 251, 336, 350, 367, 372, 495, 496, 497, 641, 643, 645, 697, 811, 813, 815, 817, 819, 821, 822, 832, 833, 869, 870, 873, 909, 910, 958, 961, 1055, 1056, 1057, 1061, 1062, 1063, 1065, 1103, 1133, 1162, 1206, 1224, 1236, 1237, 1238, 1277, 1279, 1280, 1282, 2302, 2430, 2452, 2454, 2462, 2457, 2548, 2565, 2575, 2559, 2565, 2606, 2621, 2630, 2770, 2778, Fire Wire 2459 ASIC 2432, 2447, Definition of "Kernal" 2341 Software modems 2367, 2371 DEC 2320, 2354 HP 2292, 2293, 2358, 84TA, Jet Send 2445, 2468, 2573, 2582, Oracle 806, 808, 810, 812, 814, 816, 2637, NCI, Network Computer, Navio, Wind's browser 254, 257, 260, 263, 303, 301, 447, 452, 460, 564, 590, 595, 596, 806, 818, 823, 826, 828, 829, 830, 831, 837, 841, 860, 994, 1083, 1098, 1208, 2386, 2607, 2608, 2609, 84TA, 2633, 2661, 2683, 114TA, 2838, Design Wins 721 Military 2580, 2590, Tornado 88, 150, 416, 878, 886, Pathfinder 1148, 2482 Product Pricing 2465, 2469, 2470, 2517 Java 80, 82, 84, 95, 759, 2544, 259, 829, 993, 999, 2596, 2605, 2645, Unix vs NT 2366, 2368 Sun 2368, 541, 543, 755, 994, 2598, 2605, Microsoft 280, 281, 388, 389, 390, 391, 394, 396, 397, 398, 425, , 445, 454, 455, 481, 488, 533, 538, 546, 744, 745, 748, 750, 753, 758, 759, 792, 806, 834, 835, 846, 850, 853, 856, 861, 862, 865, 867, 884, 890, 900, 902, 972, 973, 974, 975, 976, 983, 987, 988, 989, 991, 1002, 1136, 1253, 1263, 2394, 2398, 2445, 2605, 2604, 2771, 2813, 2814, 2816, 2817, 2818, 2821, Willows 670 RTOS Applications 54, 71, 74, 78, 88, 81, 85, 86, 89, 218, Adobe 1244, Smart Cards 998, What does Wind River Systems do? 508, 512 exchange2000.com AEAC Meeting, Trade Shows 338, 684, 687, 2379, 2388, 2382, Technical Journals 155, 165, 1133, "Ubiquitous Computing" 182, 218, 391, 654, 806, 2603, Market Share 114, 149, 157, 159, 160, 161, 162, 164, 195, 196, Roll Your Own, Time to Market 112, 124, 125, 128, 2308 16 BIT vs 32 BIT Processors 124, 112 Hardware vs Software RTOS Solutions 113, 117 Technical Analysis and Stock Price Up (Down) 6, 12, 36, 43, 55, 56, 57, 61 70, 130, 135, 163, 201, 302, 420, 421, 422, 500, 503, 505, 506, 570 (Crash), 572, 611, 705, 719, 771, 774, 783, 933, 935, 936, 940, 946, 948, 951, 956, 959, 962, 977, 978, 980, 984, 2295, 2297, 2298, 2299, 2301, 2309, 2401, 2519, 2520, 82TA, 2661, 2772, Wind Bears (and Discussion) 429, 430, 437, 438, 439, 440, 880, 882, 883, 888, 893, 895, 896, 901, 903, 904, 905, 906, 911, 915, 918, 919, 921, 922, 923, 924, 927, 928, 937, 941, 962, 969, 980, 1109, 1114, 1130, 1149, 1158, 1162, 1164, 1172, 1173, 1188, 1196, 1218, 1223, 1224, 1234, 1254, 1284, 2129, 2546, 2579, 2648, 2652, 2653, 2654, 2754, 2759, 130TA, 2864, Macro-Economics and Asian Crisis, International Markets 1054, 2301, 2502, 2503, 2519, 2637, 1259, Fundamental Analysis, Volatility, Inefficiency, PE, Good Introduction to WIND 12, 13, 17, 43, 51, 57, 108, 109, 110, 112, 124, 113, 117, 114, 115, 135, 140, 149, 150, 155, 946, 953, 991, 2301, 2379, 2438, 2448, 2471, 2661, 2485, Intrinsic Value, Allen Benn's Investment Philosophy 316, 326, 714, 737, 742, 743, 923, 992, 1000, 1051, 1068, 1109, 1118, 1130, 1159, 1162, 1185, 1244, 1270, 1271, 1287, 1291, Franchise, "Winner takes all", Competition 218, 245, 252, 261, 262, 268, 342, 746, 795, 1134, 1182, 2566, Outlook for 1997, 1998 441, 2597, 2600, 2620, 2690, Growth rate, margins 239, 315, 2594, 84TA, 1184, Earnings, Projections FY 1996: 14,18, 43, 58, forecasting-27, 205, 229, 233, 316, 366, 373, 386, 666, 675, 1016, 1023, 1072, 1093 (1Q98), 1099, 1100, 1101, 1103, 1104, 1152, 1162, 1230, 2378, 2451, 2452, 2453, 2401, 2428, 2433, 2432 , 2564, 2602, 2802, 2834, 2842, Seasonality of Earnings 62, 100, 629, Report on shareholders meeting 207 Conference Calls 597(4Q96), 601, 1116, 2442, 2443, 2444, 2445, 2446, 2808, 2809, 2834, Run Time Royalties 58, 81, 208, 249, 372, 608, 756, 2378, 2452, 2699, 2700* Service Revenues 2447, Hockey Stick 610, H&Q, Institutional Holdings, Financial Press, Analyst Comments 51,74, 57, 115, 247, 276, 277, 350, 376, 384, 450, 476, 485, 510, 519, 642, 677, 678, 683, 690, 693, 694, 695, 724, 727, 732, 791, 946, 1009, 1023, 1025, 1027, 1043, 1128, 2289, 2293, 2374, 2438, 2471, 93TA, 2656, Marketmaker Tricks 2614 Utility Theory of Money and Investing 138 Insider Sales 138, 440, 444, Stock Repurchase Program 2330, 2331, 2334, 2333, 2335, 2569 Poison Pill, Takeovers, Stock Splits 171, 138, 222 WIND's investments in other companies 2487, 2550, 2577, 2578, 2836, 2855, 2861, 2862, Workforce, Personnel, 338, 382, 387, 412, 525, 537, 539, 781, 809, 1195, 2286, 2287, 2290, 2291, 2391, 2393, Management Quality 1118, 1125, 1126, Jerry Fiddler 279, 324, 338, 930, 932, 989, 991, 2457, 2462 Ron Abelmann 991, 2413 Dave Wilner 338, 372 New Facility 2305, 2307

To: Bargain Hunter who wrote (2864)	3/7/1998 5:05:00 PM
From: Mark Brophy	Respond to of 10309

The company hasn't planted enough seeds. In order to justify the $1b market cap, Wind River needs to participate in a mass market. If it remains only in traditional limited markets, it's only worth $400m. Microsoft won the big RTOS set-top box contract from TCI, so clearly Wind didn't work hard enough and the only remaining big opportunity is the network computer. The Navio acquisition is their tacit admission that they don't have enough ammunition to grow rapidly. I2O developer revenue came on strong on 1997, but it won't give 1998 revenues a big kick because customers already bought their developer kits. Run-time unit volume was projected by Intel at 10m units, but now 2m units is a better projection. At $1.40-1.75/unit, revenues will not increase substantially. Even the traditional markets where Wind has a head start over Microsoft are under siege. MS added hard real-time capability to WinCE 6 months ago and have signed some deals with Ericsson and Nokia. You can see the effects by comparing the equity/share today to a year ago. Today, excluding the $13,343 write-off, equity is 125,339 (111,986+13,343) and there are 28,080 shares, or $4.46/share. A year ago, equity was $108,749 and there were 28,229 shares, or $3.85/share. That's a small 16% increase, indicating the stock is overpriced. If you do a pro-forma of the R&D expenses from OST and Navio, all growth completely disappears!