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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (2279)	3/16/1998 11:59:00 PM
From: Kurthend	Respond to of 3029

Mark, This is in reference to a previous post of mine: Message 3613759 The reason I stated 32 cents a share for this qtr was due to the response I got from D. Keller. I had asked on previous occasions what they thought were safe numbers for the qtr. This figure was based on that response and is only a SWAG. Well anyway, I pulled up some figures from various analysts for this qtr and year. Here are the estimates: Mar 98 Jun 98 FY98 FY99 I/B/E/S .38 .48 1.88 3.00 Zacks .37 ? 1.91 2.88 S&P ? ? 2.37 3.71 1st Call .41 ? 2.05 3.00 I believe the S&P est for FY98 has not been updated and thus should be thrown out. The average for Mar 98 is around 39 cents. Based on I/B/ E/S and my conversation with INVX, the qtr ending Jun should net 48 cents. If the qtr ending Sep is equal to the 3rd qtr (may be optimistic since the summer is usually the slow qtr but then again the flip chips - flex circuits and HIF may start kicking in by then) then INVX again would earn 48 cents. The year would end IMO with earnings of around $1.83 (.48 + .39 + .48 + .48). The estimates above (discounting Zacks) average $1.96. It will be interesting to find out what the actual earnins will be for this qtr ending in Mar (To see if my .32 earnings estimate is closer that the analysts). The current PE for the estimated FY98 earnings (as of today's price) is approximately 12. I believe the 5 year average PE is around 15 or 16. So, the price is still fairly cheap. As you know, the estimates for FY99 are virtually impossible to tell due to the BTO models that DELL and other companies are now embracing. Heck, INVX can't even say with any certainty what their 3rd qtr will look like. I do believe that the HDD industry will turn around at some time in the not-so-far future and that INVX will take full advantage of the flip chip technology that Doug Fant has been talking about and what Haley has mentioned in previous CCs. A previous post by Doug mentioned a time frame of 12-18 months for the flip chip technology to come into full swing. In fact, Doug Keller mentioned that by the end of this FY and possibly this summer they will start earning revenue on their flex circuits for flip chips (Unknown revenue). I will stop rambling, but I thought you might enjoy the figures regarding INVX. Kurt